Report of Working Group No. 4 of the AIAA/CEAS/CASI Workshop on International Cooperation in Space

THE WORKING GROUP ON PUBLIC SPACE TRAVEL

Chairperson Ivan Bekey (USA)

Rapporteur Dietmar P. Wurzel (Germany)

MANDATE

Recommend steps that should be taken internationally to enable and facilitate travel to and from space for the general public.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Extensive travel by air, sea and land for pleasure and business has become a commonplace fact of modern life. By contrast, travel in space is available to only a few highly trained government astronauts, and the public's perception is that it cannot be otherwise. In fact, "space tourism", routinely available to the general public at affordable prices, is much closer at hand than most people realize. It is sure to become a huge commercial space industry in the near future.

The terrestrial travel and tourism industry is the largest in the world, with revenues of $3.4 trillion in 1995. Space tourism is expected to become at least 1% of that, with revenues measured in tens of billions of dollars annually. Early stage market surveys indicate that millions of people wish to go into space and would do so if the ticket price were tens of thousands of U.S. dollars. That price is comparable to today's so-called "adventure travel" businesses, which take people to exotic destinations on Earth. Introductory services would be sustainable even if an order of magnitude more expensive.

Revenues from such businesses could easily be $10-30 billion annually, and have potential for internal rates of return large enough to attract private capital. Several small private studies and public interest groups, as well as a NASA/Space Transportation Association workshop, have indicated that when suitable launch vehicles are available, there will be no major impediments to the formation of financially viable, large, lucrative public space travel businesses. That time is not more than a few years away.

Public space travel will evolve through several phases, beginning with ground space camps and zero-g aircraft, through suborbital flights, to orbital flights of a few orbits' to a few days' duration, and finally into extended stays aboard orbiting hotels. While the latter phases are several years off, suborbital flights are already being offered for 2001 by entrepreneurs.

Whereas vehicles for suborbital flights are being developed using mostly current components and technologies, launch vehicle requirements for the orbital phases of public space travel call for major cost reductions and increased reliability, in addition to specialized passenger accommodations. Assuming that ongoing technology maturation programs are successful in the next few years, vehicles for the first-generation orbital systems could be built without additional new technologies. They would, however, have to be designed with high margins, reusability, and maitainability to attain sufficiently low operating costs - which is no trivial undertaking. While some such vehicle designs already exist, they have yet to be built and demonstrated. More advanced technologies and constructions, and considerably more time, will likely be needed to produce the envisioned mass passenger rates and orbital hotel facilities.

The public space travel market is certain to grow so large that it represents the start of a whole new space industry. This market will broaden the current base for financing new launch vehicles, whose low cost of operation will in turn enable other large space industries. These future industries will include the provision of wholesale, clean, inexhaustible energy; establishment of orbiting industrial parks; orbiting sports and entertainment facilities; and other space commercial activities.

Together these endeavors will bring to fruition the goal of extending everyday activities and routine commerce into space. Large numbers of average people will be able to related personally to and benefit from space in their everyday lives. When that happens, government space programs of science and exploration will be approved as normal activities of advanced industrialized nations, rather than being viewed as elitist or irrelevant.

Public space travel is inherently an international activity, with launches and landings occurring in many countries having different access rules, standards, and laws. Many international legal regimes applicable to sea and air travel may apply by extension, but specific laws governing space passenger travel must be established. International equipment construction and operational standards must be developed to ensure multination interoperability. Internationally acceptable medical passenger screening and health maintenance protocols are also needed, and an international program for rapidly removing dangerous orbital debris must be formulated and implemented.

Several existing international bodies can and should take on the necessary legal, standards-setting, and inter-operability coordination functions. In the area of medical and human factors, international standards are also needed to address passenger acceptance criteria, sickness amelioration protocols, and accommodations.

Fledgling public space travel businesses could benefit from the establishment of a dedicated, private, self-financing international organization that would help to identify and deal with various government agencies and world bodies. Such an organization could also advocate public outreach and education on public space travel, charter credible global-scale market surveys, and serve as an information exchange on cost-engineered designs and other data. It could be formed under an existing professional international body such as the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA), or be a wholly new group with industry roots.

In light of its great potential, public space travel should be viewed as the next large, new area of commercial space activity. It should be accorded high priority and visibility by space agencies, space manufacturing and service industries, terrestrial travel and tourism industries, and the financial and insurance communities.

To maintain the momentum of this workshop, it is recommended that, in addition to publicizing its findings, the AIAA, in concert with the IAA, the International Astronautical Federation ( IAF), and public interest groups, review these recommendations and suggest implementation options at the fall 1998 IAF Congress in Melbourne.

BACKGROUND

The travel and tourism industry employs over 200 million people - almost one in every nine workers worldwide. Market surveys indicate that a surprising number of people wish to go into space and would do so given reasonable ticket prices. The principal surveys were done by P. Collins for Japan, the CSTS group for NASA, by Society Expeditions in the U.S., and by Yankelovich in the U.S. The results of these and other derived surveys indicate the magnitude and elasticity of the potential market.

These surveys show that about 1,000 people annually would go into space even if the ticket price were $0.5 million - 1 million; that about 100,000 people would go if the price dropped to $100,000; and that eventually over 1 million people would go annually if the price dropped to $10,000 - 20,000. Since ticket prices of $50,000 - 100,000 are common in today's adventure travel businesses, such costs are not unreasonable.

These numbers imply that revenues from such businesses could easily be $10 - $30 billion annually. Thus the market is potentially huge, comparable to the communications satellite market in recent years. Some very recent studies also indicate that the cost of providing the services can be managed so as to produce an internal rate of return sufficient to attract the capital necessary for business formation. Thus it appears that future businesses offering public space travel are very likely to arise.

Public space travel will evolve through several stages. Phase 0, now well underway, centers around ground theme parks and space camps, some of which will be associated with future spaceports. Each year 10 million people visit these facilities. Phase 1, which is also underway, will take small numbers of people on suborbital trips, letting them experience a few minutes of weightlessness. Some entrepreneurial ventures have begun raising capital, building vehicles, and taking reservations for rides in about three years. They require only modest capital and existing technology.

Phase 2 will take people into low Earth orbit, for a few orbits to a few days, and back. This phase is a large step, and the subject of dedicated studies in the U.S. and Japan. Passengers would have more time to view the Earth and engage in weightless activities, living in the launch vehicle cabin much as Shuttle astronauts do. Though ventures are forming, and the necessary technology will be mature in 2-3 years, the magnitude of needed capital investment is such that flights are only likely to occur in 5-10 years. Phase 3 is the mature phase of public space travel. It will develop later as demand for longer stays in orbit grows, and will usher in stays of weeks or more aboard one or more orbital hotels - facilities not unlike small cruise ships or hotels. More advanced technologies, lower costs, and much greater reliabilities will be needed.

Several small private studies and public interest groups have formed in recent years to advocate and benefit from this lucrative new space market opportunity. While the private sector must drive this activity area, nonetheless there are critical roles that must be played by governments. Recognizing this, NASA and the Space Transportation Association in the U.S. conducted a joint study and in February 1997 held a workshop to explore what both sectors must do to enable the start of viable businesses in public space travel.

That workshop included not only traditional aerospace participants, but also representatives of the financial, travel, and hotel industries. Topics ranged from passenger and crew accommodations to insurance and financial needs to vehicle requirements and ground facilities. The workshop concluded that when a suitable launch vehicle is available, large and lucrative public space travel businesses will definitely start, and serious planning should begin now. Although the study was oriented toward a U.S. business, the results are also valid for other nations and international consortia.

The workshop was devoted to exploring the many factors that must be considered in their international context to enable or enhance the start of public space travel.

FINDINGS

1. Public space travel is closer at hand than most people realize.

Space travel, limited today to a few highly trained, publicly funded astronauts, is on the verge of becoming available to the general public. Suborbital flights are imminent, with ventures underway and vehicles under construction. The first flights are slated for 2001. Both ventures and vehicles will see continued incremental improvements and sophistication. What will begin as costly adventure trips will gradually become routine and increasingly affordable. It is neither wishful thinking nor decades away.

2. Such travel has the potential to become a huge space market.

Early-phase market surveys indicate that potentially millions of passengers will travel into space each year, producing annual revenues of tens of billions of dollars. Some studies have shown that even early public space travel businesses have an internal rate of return high enough to attract the necessary capital for business formation. Thus the market is potentially huge, comparable to that of the communications satellite market in recent years. What is needed now is to attract the attention of investors and facilitators.

3. Public space travel can be initiated with current technology.

Space tourism will develop gradually. Entrepreneurial activities underway today will provide suborbital flights beginning in 2001. Because the demands of suborbital flight are modest, these ventures plan on using current technologies and components assembled into new vehicles. There is little question that such flights can occur.

4. Making orbital flights available to the public will require development of new-technology transportation vehicles.

Launch vehicle requirements for the orbital phases of public space travel call for reducing costs by at least a factor of 10 and increasing reliability by a factor of 100. If ongoing technology maturation programs are successful in the next few years, vehicles for first-generation orbital systems could be built without additional new technologies. They would, however, have to be designed with high margins, reusability, and maintainability to attain sufficiently low operating costs. While some such vehicles have been designed, they have yet to be built and demonstrated. More advanced technologies and constructions, and considerably more time, will likely be needed to reach mass passenger rates envisioned for the future.

These vehicles must be fully savable in all flight modes, that is, able to abort to safe landings at all times. To fulfill the expected demand and operate economically, very much greater launch rates and large fleet sizes must be achieved, as well as an all-weather launch and landing capability. Passenger accommodations must be defined with respect to issues of safety, comfort, volume, and privacy. The aim will be to provide accommodations similar to those offered by small hotels or cruise ships, though initial flight services will certainly be more modest.

The eventual high-volume passenger space travel vehicle that will have to be environmentally benign. This means, for example, that nonpolluting propellants must be used, and that orbital debris must not be created.

5. Public space travel involves many international issues.

Space travel is an inherently international activity that brings with it a vast array of issues to be dealt with on a global scale. These involve financial, insurance, legal, and regulatory institutions and bodies with global constituency.

While orbital flights are beyond national jurisdictions, launches and landings, both routine and emergency, must be possible from and in different countries. Laws, regulations, and processes differ among nations and must be harmonized. Current space law does not address passenger space flight and must be expanded. Launch and landing sites and operations in all countries must have common access and common standards.

Legal issues cover a wide scope including take-off and landing rights, collisions, damage due to debris, jurisdiction over vehicles and space hotels, rescue, salvage, liability, security, and more. On the regulatory side are certification, registry and manifests, launch and reentry approvals, and passports and visas.

Air and space traffic control will have to be instituted and will involve flight plans, language and reservations. Non-ICBM notifications will have to be released. Space surveillance and control must be established, and air traffic must be coordinated. Interfaces and standards must be developed for common access and interoperability, and communications protocols must be installed.

Environmental issues include community noise near launch and landing sites, sonic boom, atmospheric pollution, and space debris, which poses a threat to space vehicles and hotels. It is noted that essentially all of today's dangerous orbital debris objects could be eliminated by irradiating them with a modest ground-based laser, causing their rapid reentry and burnup. Emergency procedures and training must also be developed, as must flight and range safety an all nations with spaceports.

International public relations and education efforts are needed to promote awareness and acceptance of public space travel. The public must also be educated to accept higher risk than that for current airline travel, at least in early phases.

Of the numerous issues that need to be addressed, many either have international impact or are impacted by international laws or regulations. Three aspects illustrate in more detail the ramifications of these issues.

Passenger accommodations: International standards will be needed for personal protection systems, emergency air supply, procedures such as emergency egress training, and noise and vibration levels. Features such as view ports, tour guide and photo assistance , common space for zero-g games and exercise, and individual volume allocations for private activities may be needed to attract passengers and will benefit from an international dialogue.

Medical requirements: International conventions must set passenger profiles, including possible weight and size restrictions, and define satisfactory medical examinations. Launch centrifuge simulation and parabolic flight opportunities should be provided for further screening. Launch and landing constraints must be defined to be more benign than those of the Space Shuttle, with an acceleration lower than 2 g vertically down with the passenger in a lying position. Standards for on-orbit constraints such as normal atmosphere, on-board medical and emergency care, and treatment or prevention of space motion sickness must be addressed.

Insurance Personal insurance, insurance for tour operators, vehicle owners, and vehicle manufacturers must be available. Third-party indemnification must be addressed on a global scale and will be a special challenge. Insurance requirements could lead to international construction and operation standards for both vehicles and ground facilities, and will probably also influence national regulation. While insurance approaches might be based on current international shipping and aviation analogies, specific new international approaches may be needed.

Many of the factors treated in these three aspects, including criteria, protocols, and standards, will come under the purview of world coordinating or legal bodies. They must therefore me considered in that context, lest purely national private ventures founder because of unforeseen pressures that may develop in international operations.

6. International preparatory activities are needed to facilitate publicspace travel

To promote the idea of space tourism, erase misconceptions, and facilitate its acceptance, the promise of public space access must be forcefully brought to the attention of the space community, terrestrial industries, and the general public. The non-aerospace community must be heavily involved, particularly the terrestrial tourism industry, insurance companies, legal and financial institutions, and other national and international groups. Investors and facilitators must be brought on board. Dedicated professional sessions, meetings, and workshops must be held worldwide.

Reliable, large-scale market surveys are needed to lend credence to the claim that space tourism is a multibillion dollar market. Business schools and universities must be approached to carry out case studies. Studies on spaceport sites must be initiated. A database of cost-engineered vehicle system designs is needed for the common benefit of entrepreneurial ventures. Government-industry relationships in this new area must be explored.

RECOMMENDATIONS

1. In view of its great potential, public space travel should be accorded high priority and visibility by space agencies, space manufacturing and service industries, travel and tourism industries, and the financial and insurance communities.

Public space travel should be viewed as the next large, new, area of commercial space activity. As such it should be addressed in all appropriate venues, including professional symposia, business-oriented assemblies, and technology advancement meetings.

2. A dedicated, private, international group should be formed to facilitate the formation of private businesses that would provide public space travel.

The functions of such a group would include helping to identify and deal with various government agencies and world bodies; advocacy of public space travel; public outreach and education; chartering of credible global-scale market surveys; serving as a central information exchange on cost-engineered designs and other data; and enabling business and site location case studies. The group should include representatives from travel-related industries, the insurance, legal and financial industries, and the traditional aerospace community. It should draw its financing from those industries and from those it serves, rather than from governments. It could be formed under an existing professional international body such as the IAA, or be a new industrial group.

3. The rapid removal from orbit of dangerous debris should be addressed by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (also known as IADC).

This is a forum of space agencies chartered to exchange information on space debris research activities, to facilitate opportunities for cooperation in space debris research, to review the progress of ongoing cooperative activities and to identify debris mitigation options.

This task should be in addition to its current efforts to reduce the production of such debris.

4. An appropriate world body should address the international legal aspects of public space travel with the aim of facilitating the provision of services by private ventures.

This body could be the existing International Institute of Space Law.

5. The international standards aspects of public space travel should be addressed by an appropriate world body, with the aim of facilitating global interoperability of equipment and services by private ventures.

This body could be the International Standards Organization (ISO), operating under UN charter, though other groups might be appropriate as well.

6. The medical and biotechnical aspects of taking large numbers of private citizens into, through, and back from space should be addressed in an international forum.

The goal here should be to set common practices, screening criteria, sickness amelioration protocols, and other such factors. This could be addressed by an international group of medical professionals or organizations. A new body should be formed if no appropriate group with a worldwide charter currently exists.

7. The AIAA International Activities Committee, in concert with the IAF, the IAA, and public interest groups, should be tasked to assess various organization options for the above recommendations.

This applies particularly to Recommendation 1, but may be appropriate to the others as well. The committee should recommend a viable set of organizational solutions at the 1998 IAF Congress in Melbourne, during a special meeting.

CONCLUSIONS

The workshop concluded that public space travel will be available soon and will become a huge space market. It is inherently international, and will benefit from international attention, alliances, insurance, standards, financing, rule-making, and support/advocacy organizations. It must be taken seriously by space agencies and industry alike.

REFERENCES

1. P Collins, R Stockmans & M Maita, " Demand for Space Tourism in America and Japan, and its Implications for Future Space Activities: 1996", Advances in Astronautical Sciences 91, 601-610, 1995.