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Space Future has been on something of a hiatus of late. With the concept of Space Tourism steadily increasing in acceptance, and the advances of commercial space, much of our purpose could be said to be achieved. But this industry is still nascent, and there's much to do. So...watch this space.
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O Barrett, 1999, "An Evaluation of the Potential Demand for Space Tourism Within the United Kingdom", Bournemouth University, Dorset, England. March 1999.
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References and Referring Papers    Printable Version 
 Bibliographic Index
An evaluation of the potential demand for Space Tourism within the United Kingdom
Olly Barrett


"Space Tourism will begin 10 years after people stop laughing at the concept. Recently people have stopped"

David Ashford, Director of Bristol Spaceplanes Plc


Abstract

The purpose of this research is to provide an evaluation of the potential demand for space tourism within the United Kingdom (U.K).

To promote further research and development into space tourism, there exists the necessity to estimate the global potential demand for space tourism. In an attempt to begin this estimation, two key surveys were conducted in Japan and North America. Following these studies, the request for further surveys within Europe stimulated the initiation of this research within the U.K.

The resultant data arising from this research demonstrates that a significant potential demand for space tourism does exist. Overall, 34.7 % of all respondents stated the desire to undertake a space trip, with a further 23.6 % undecided. Further analysis promote the assumption that the combination of these two percentages represent more accurately the current latent demand for space tourism within the U.K.

Investigation of the influences on demand established that the majority (40 %) of respondents were only prepared to spend £700 to travel into space. However, almost 12 % (which represents 3 ½ million people) would pay £8,500, the equivalence of the predicted cost for a mass space tourism ticket. This research also supports the notion that the common desire is to stay in space for prolonged periods of time, with viewing Earth as the key motivation to do so.

The extent to which Britain may contribute to the future global space tourism industry still remains uncertain. As space tourism exists only a contemporary concept, the respondents possessed very limited knowledge. Therefore, as interest and information becomes more prevalent, it is suggested that the overall level of demand will increase. To further evaluate the potential U.K space tourism market, additional surveys are essential in order to clarify the findings from this research.

Acknowledgments
The author would like to take the opportunity to acknowledge with gratitude, the assistance provided by Patrick Collins.
Disclaimer
The author can not be held liable for any of the information contained within this research.


Contents

Tables and Figures
1. Chapter One
1.1 INTRODUCTION 1.1.1 Introduction
1.1.2 The concept of space tourism
1.1.3 Research framework
1.1.4 Plan of action
1.1.5 Summary
1.1.6 Sources
2. Chapter Two
2.1 LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1.1 Introduction
2.1.2 Forecasting
2.1.2.1 Forecasting factors
2.1.2.2 Forecasting tourism demand
2.1.3 Demand
2.1.3.1 Tourism demand 'determinants'
2.1.3.2 Tourism demand 'motivators'
2.1.4 Applying tourism demand forecasting to space tourism
2.1.5 Summary
3. Chapter Three
3.1 METHODOLOGY 3.1.1 Introduction
3.1.2 Primary research methodology
3.1.2.1 Survey Methodology
3.1.3 Potential areas of sampling error
3.1.4 Data comparison
3.1.5 Summary
4. Chapter Four
4.1 RESULTS ANALYSIS 4.1.1 Introduction
4.1.2 Demographic variance
4.1.2.1 Gender Ratio
4.1.2.2 Age group representation
4.1.3 Research results analysis
4.1.3.1 Space tourism interest and awareness
4.1.4 The 'Determinants' of space tourism
4.1.4.1 Cost
4.1.4.2 Time
4.1.5 The 'motivators' of space tourism
4.1.6 Potential demand for space tourism within the U.K
4.1.7 Space tourism demand Comparisons
4.1.8 Respondent reasons for not wanting to undertake space tourism
4.1.9 Hypothesis Testing (Pearson Chi-Square)
4.1.10 Summary
5. Chapter Five
5.1 CONCLUSION 5.1.1 Introduction
5.1.2 Research evaluation
5.1.3 Evaluation of the potential demand for space tourism within the U.K
5.1.4 Britain's potential within the future global space tourism industry
5.1.5 Future research recommendations
5.1.6 Summary
6. Bibliography
7. Appendices


Tables and Figures

  Tables Table 1 : Three possible options available to forecast future tourism patterns
Table 2 : Four key 'Determinants' which influence tourism demand
Table 3 : Four key 'Motivators' which influence tourism demand
Table 4 : Variance in gender ratio between the survey and the 1991 U.K Census
Table 5 : Survey gender percentage and variance in age range representation versus 1991 U.K Census
Table 6 : Summary of U.K space tourism demand
Table 7 : Summary of demand results from previous market research in Japan and North America
Table 8 : Respondent quotes justifying why do wish to undertake space tourism
Table 9 : Hypothesis : The desire to undertake space tourism is related to age
Table 10 : Hypothesis : The preferred length of stay in space is related to gender
Table 11 : Hypothesis : The preferred length of a stay in space is related to marital status
Table 12 : Hypothesis : The desire to learn more about space tourism is related to age
Table 13 : Hypothesis : The desire to undertake space tourism is related to respondent awareness
  Figures Figure 1 : Model for estimating the global space tourism potential demand
Figure 2 : Paying for the Space trip ~ proportion of income and estimated amount in UK Pounds
Figure 3 : Preferred length of stay in space by surveyed market
Figure 4 : Ranking of space tourism motivations
Figure 5 : Potential U.K demand for space tourism by age group
Figure 6 : Respondent reasons for not wanting to undertake space tourism
Figure 7 : Respondent gender and reason for not wanting to undertake space tourism


1. Chapter One

1.1.1 Introduction

This chapter serves not only as an introduction to the theme of this research, but also provides a guide to the subject areas under examination and the plan of action.

The contemporary nature of space tourism will be briefly explored, commencing with an overview of its conception and followed by the economic rationale supporting the market development and growth.

Finally, this chapter will set out the objectives of this research, and define the methodology through which these will be achieved.

1.1.2 The concept of space tourism

The first terrestrial vehicle penetrated the orbit surrounding Earth over three decades ago, yet since this time space has remained strictly within the domain of national governments and professional Astronauts. As government agencies such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Space Agency (ESA) have traditionally been the only customers for space flight development, research into other areas has been limited (Space Future Website, 1998).

However, over the past ten years the concept of the general public gaining access to space for personal and recreational purposes has heightened. It is now popular belief that this proposal has left the realms of science fiction and is rapidly becoming a serious contender for research and industry resources.

The Apollo 11 Astronaut, Buzz Aldrin, proclaims that "now entering space is so routine, why shouldn't anyone ~ even a vacationer ~ be able to go". Insisting also that only once this is achieved "will space be democratized" (Kluger, 1998).

The term affiliated with this concept is space tourism. It encapsulates the notion that paying passengers will have the opportunity to travel beyond Earth's atmosphere and experience orbital flights, prolonged stays in rotating space hotels and participate in research, entertainment and even sport. However, it is important to emphasize that this concept will necessitate a paradigm shift in how space is perceived, constituting not only the journey but also forming the destination.

A growth in terrestrial based ancillary services is also anticipated. These will provide the necessary pre-trip training facilities (including parabolic and vertical sub-orbit flights), launch sites, space theme parks and possibly even Virtual Reality simulations (Space Tourism Initiative, 1996). A few of these attractions are already available and within the United States alone, between 10 and 12 million visitors per year spend an estimated $1 billion at such attractions (Rogers, 1997). This provides a significant indication of the potential demand for space tourism.

Once fully established it has been projected that space tourism will have an aggregated revenue of between US$ 10 to 20 billion (O'Neil, 1998). Significant enough to form a large proportion of the total terrestrial travel and tourism revenue, which in 1996 amounted to US$ 3.5 trillion (WTO, 1997). Therefore, it is not inconceivable that it is which constitutes the driving force behind the dedication and expectations of those researching and developing space tourism.

1.1.3 Research framework

While it can be assumed that demand for space tourism will undoubtedly exist, the astronomical research and development costs necessitate this assumption to be unequivocally substantiated. In an attempt to satisfy this requirement, a forecast of the potential demand for space tourism on a national and international scale has been initiated.

The impetus for this research emanates from Japan and specifically under the auspices of the National Aerospace Laboratory ( NAL) in Tokyo, who in 1993 establish the first major space tourism demand survey. The results from which demonstrated that 80 % of the Japanese population would like to visit space at least once in their lifetime (Collins, Iwaski, Kanayama and Ohnuki, 1994). Replication of this survey within North America and Canada in 1995, suggested over 60 % of the total population exhibited a similar desire (Collins, Stockmans and Maita, 1996).

Following these studies, further research was proclaimed as imperative and specifically within the European Community. Therefore, this petition formed the key objective for this research with the intention to conduct comparable market research to quantify the potential demand for space tourism within the U.K.

Comparisons between the results from this research and the previous studies will also be undertaken to identify any similarities or disparities.

It is envisaged that the key results from this research will contribute to those currently available for other countries and provide valuable supplementary information to assist the inauguration of space tourism development.

1.1.4 Plan of action

In order to assess the potential demand for space tourism within the U.K, this research has been disseminated into 4 core areas.

Firstly, a review of the contemporary theories relating to tourism demand forecasting and the identification of the main 'determinants' and 'motivators' which may influence the demand for space tourism (Chapter 2).

Secondly, the explicit explanation of the research methodology pursued in order to estimate the potential demand (Chapter 3).

Thirdly, the quantification of the influences on space tourism demand followed by an estimation of the potential demand for space tourism within the U.K (Chapter 4). And finally, an evaluation of Britain as a catchment market for space tourism as well as an assessment of the position it may command within the future industry (Chapter 5).

1.1.5 Summary

This chapter introduced the concept of space tourism by establishing the current terrestrial popularity, along with a clarification of the potential for it to become a future holiday destination.

Demand research was illustrated as the key to initiating development and investment. While the scarcity of research in Europe was highlighted, previous market studies have indicated that between 60 % of the North American and 80 % of the Japanese populations would like to undertake space tourism.

Therefore, the rationale for the conduct of this research comprises of the requirement to develop the volume of potential demand information for space tourism, in particularly within Europe and the U.K.

A signpost for the location of the main areas within this research was also provided.

1.1.6 Sources

Space tourism exists currently only as an emergent concept, and is afforded limited official recognition. Therefore, the author is keen to stress that the theories and assumptions contained within this research are based on a modest range of source material.

Due to the scarcity of published reports, the majority of the secondary research has been downloaded from the Internet (World Wide Web).


2. Chapter Two
2.1 LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1.1 Introduction

Chapter 1 established the popularity of space and introduced the concept of it becoming a conceivable future tourist destination. This chapter will aim to identify the relevant economic demand theory and apply it to both the terrestrial tourism industry and specifically to space tourism. The product of this review will aim to justify and assist the evaluation of the potential market for space tourism, as undertaken in Chapter 4.

In order to investigate the potential demand for space tourism, it is necessary to gain an appreciation of two important concepts ~ forecasting and demand.

2.1.2 Forecasting

Policies are the consequence of a decision-making process which have the objective of modifying the present, in view of the future. Therefore, virtually all policy analysis requires forecasts of future conditions (Van Doorn, 1991).

Not only can forecasting give an idea of what future conditions may be like, but can also predict the outcomes of alternative courses of action ( Smith, 1996). Providing the information for these forecasts can only be done through careful research. Within the corporate sphere no manager can avoid the need for some form of forecasting, as in order to plan one must use forecasts (Martin and Witt, 1988).

Sound market intelligence can be gained from a variety of formal and informal methods, and it is this information which bridges the gap between the provider of the product or service and the consumer. Decisions such as those concerning new product development should be based on research findings (Cooper et al., 1998), as reliable forecasts of future revenues which demonstrate financial viability may be highly catalytic in the availability of investment (McIntosh and Goeldner, 1990).

However, Wahab et al., (1976) warns forecasting can never afford a 100 per cent probability that the forecast and the outcome will coincide. Consequences of misinterpreting forecasts can be development failure due to over-optimistic forecasts or missed opportunities through mistrust (Latham, 1994). Van Doorn (1991) supports this by stating scientific methods and techniques can only partially delete risk from any venture.

2.1.2.1 Forecasting factors

An essential role of forecasting is the estimation of future consumer demand for a specific product or service. Bull (1995) defines demand as the quantities of a product which buyers collectively are willing and able to buy at any potential price over a specified period of time. The quantity demanded of any product will usually depend on a plethora of extra factors including population size, consumer incomes, tastes and competitive products (Baumol and Blinder, 1991). Bull (1995) regards demand as the driving force of need within the economy, stimulating entrepreneurial activity to produce the goods and services required to satisfy this need, in exchange for the appropriate reward. McIntosh and Goeldner (1990) state that in order to understand demand it is necessary to comprehend what demand comprises, what affects the level of demand, and how future demand can be identified.

2.1.2.2 Forecasting tourism demand

The forecasting of demand has been shown to occupy a key role within corporate decision-making, this section will show how this function can also be applied to the tourism industry.

Tourism demand is one of the more complex aspects of tourism, definable and measurable in a variety of ways and at a range of scales (Pearce, 1997). According to Van Doorn (1991), the most important data for tourism management is that of the number of people involved, with information about the flows of tourists contributing as the key input into policy decisions. Martin and Witt (1988) suggest that the need for accurate forecasting is especially acute due to the perishable nature of the tourism product.

Significantly, Smith (1996) states that there exist important differences between demand as a forecast and that of the neoclassical demand as defined by Bull (1995) above. Demand as future participation, is viewed as a function of many variables and not just price. Implying the knowledge of the anticipated mix and values of the other variables which affect demand and is simultaneously broader and narrower. While including more variables, the focus is only on the estimation of a single value.

Smith (1996) also explains that while quantitative tourism forecasting (involving the numerical analysis of historical data) is particularly useful for existing tourism elements, it is limited in its application to new ones where no previous data exists.

Table 1 Three possible options available to forecast future tourism patterns
  • Analyze general patterns of demand
  • Consider the demand for similar projects
  • Survey potential visitors to ascertain their interest and willingness to participate
Source : Smith (1996)

To facilitate the forecasting of future tourism patterns, Pearce (1997) suggests three the options as shown above in Table 1. Through a process of elimination, a survey of potential 'visitors' serves as the only method of forecasting suitable for the contemporary concept of space tourism. The methodology for this forecast is described in Chapter 3 and the results analyzed in Chapter 4.

2.1.3 Demand

As explained previously by McIntosh and Goeldner (1990), to be able to forecast tourism demand it is necessary to understand the constituents of demand and the influences these exert. The constituents of space tourism are explored during the remainder of this chapter.

2.1.3.1 Tourism demand 'determinants'

When tourists undertake travel for reasons of recreation, sport, health, study or religion (Davidson and Maitland, 1997), it can be defined as leisure travel. Bull (1995) states that this category of travel is usually discretionary and can be classed as final demand, with the travel is being undertaken for its own ends and satisfaction.

Table 2 Four key 'determinants' which influence tourism demand
  • Sufficient disposable income
  • Availability of leisure time
  • Good health
  • Political freedom of movement.
Source : Youell 1998

When considering leisure travel, Youell et al. (1998) reveals there exists two types of influence on consumer demand. The first type are labeled as 'determinants', these can be perceived as a set of core criteria which the consumer must satisfy in order to have the ability to undertake travel. Table 2 above, lists these four key determinants of tourism demand.

When considering the first determinant, Davidson and Maitland (1997) explain that money is necessary for access to most forms of tourism and its abundance or scarcity is an important factor for those considering the purchase of a holiday. Bull (1995) also states buyers must possess the wherewithal as much as the willingness.

There is no doubt a very large latent demand for luxury cruises or supersonic air travel, but few buyers have the ability to afford them. Martin and Witt (1994) conclude that income is the single most important determinant of tourism demand.

McIntosh and Goeldner (1990) emphasize that people must have the buying power to create a market, or consumers must be able to afford the product in order for the market to exist. This is highly appropriate for space tourism, as the number of consumers who can afford the cost of the initial space trips, estimated to be between $100 thousand and $1 million dollars (Collins and Ashford, 1988) is finite. An early limitation on demand may result in arrested development.

2.1.3.2 Tourism demand 'motivators'

'Motivators' are the second type of influence on demand for leisure travel. According to Youell (1998), these are complex psychological influences unique to each individual and formed by a variety of underlying factors. Table 3 below, contains the four main 'motivator' influences.

Table 3 Four key 'motivators' which influence tourism demand
  • Education
  • Life-stage
  • Fashion
  • Culture
Source : Youell 1998

The motivation to travel or participate in any form of tourism has been defined as 'the set of needs or attitudes which predisposes a person to act in a specific touristic goal-orientated way' ( Smith, 1996). Understanding why people travel is fundamental to a full appreciation of tourism demand. In fact, McIntosh and Goeldner (1990) suggest that leisure travel itself is a learned behavior, as once experienced tourists are likely to want to travel again.

Pearce (1993) summarizes tourism demand as the "outcome of tourists' motivation, as well as money, health and time relating to the travellers' choice behavior". The results of this statement usually become expressed in, or reduced to, travel statistics and forecasts of future tourism trends.

2.1.4 Applying tourism demand forecasting to space tourism

The summary above by Pearce (1993) can be readily applied to forecasting within the established terrestrial tourism industry. The difficulty arises when attempting to utilize these same principles to forecast the potential demand for space tourism.

As Smith (1996) recommended in section 2.1.2.2, in order to establish a reliable forecast for space tourism within the United Kingdom it is necessary to conduct a survey of the general public. The objective will be to ascertain latent consumer interest and willingness to undertake space tourism, with the results used to estimate the potential demand while also extrapolating details relating to the space tourism demand 'determinants' and 'motivators'.

2.1.5 Summary

This chapter has examined the economic theories relating to forecasting in general and to tourism demand. It also explored the potential benefits and uncertainties pertinent to the utilization of the resultant forecasted data.

It was discovered that tourism demand is influenced by two key factors called 'determinants' and 'motivators'. Both were also shown to consist of additional constituents.

The comprehension of tourism demand as developed during this chapter, will form the basis against which the potential demand for space tourism within the U.K will be calculated and evaluated (Chapter 4). The following chapter will explain and justify the methodology through which this research has been conducted.


3. Chapter Three
3.1 METHODOLOGY

3.1.1 Introduction

Chapter 2 examined the role of forecasting in estimating tourism demand. An appreciation was also gained for the 'determinants' and 'motivators' which influence demand.

This chapter aims to identify and clarify the key objectives of this research and provide the rationale and methodology for how these will be achieved.

The primary task of this research is to quantify, in real terms, the potential demand for space tourism within the United Kingdom. As explained in Chapter 1 (section 1.1.3), international research with a similar aim and scope has, to date, been limited and within Britain non-existent.

This research will aim to satisfy three core objectives. Firstly, the identification and quantification the demand 'determinants' and 'motivators' (see Chapter 2, sections 2.1.3.1 and 2.1.3.2) which will influence the potential demand for space tourism. Secondly, determine the proportion of the U.K population which may potentially desire to undertake space tourism. And thirdly, evaluate Britain as a potential catchment market compared to those of Japan and North America where previous market research has been conducted. The conclusion of these three will provide an assessment of possible position the U.K could control within the future global space tourism market.

The rationale and methodology as well as problems experienced with each of the three core areas will be explored during this chapter, with the results discussed in Chapters 4 and 5.

In order to promote the achievement of the three aims as stated above, there is a requirement to carry out primary research, obtain concise secondary research and to analyze contemporary tourism literature.

3.1.2 Primary research methodology

To satisfy one the requirements of this investigation, primary research in the form of a survey was undertaken. The purpose of the research was to collect quantitative data (numerical) only, with the intentional desire not to obtain qualitative information (opinions and perceptions). The rationale behind this decision was that space tourism as a concept is highly contemporary and comparatively unknown. Therefore, it was concluded that questions requesting qualitative information would return in the majority, negative or superficial responses.

According to Seaton and Bennett (1996) in order to learn something about a large group (the population) it is necessary only to look at a small part of it. It is this doctrine which has been adopted for this research.

3.1.2.1 Survey Methodology

The survey was conducted in a semi-random and face to face method, following a fully structured questionnaire. The criteria for the survey execution was determined by the type of data required, which is described below.

The survey was undertaken in a semi-random method, as the acquisition of an appropriate mix of respondents from each age and socio-economic group was required. The non-random selection of target age groups (specifically the age groups 10 to 19 and those over 60 years) was undertaken in an attempt to ensure these age groups were sufficiently represented within the results.

Due to the complex and unusual topic being researched, it was necessary to ensure that the respondent had a full comprehension of the subject and each question. Attaining this could only be achieved through a one to one method, either in person or via the telephone. This eliminated the possibility of undertaking a postal survey.

For reasons of cost and access, the decision was made to carry out the survey in person and from one location and not via the telephone network. While it is fully appreciated that this introduces the potential for geographical bias, the author considers the British conservative characteristic would hinder the successful completion of a survey via the telephone.

The nature of this survey prompted the decision to devise a structured yet simple questionnaire, allowing rapid completion to maximize the sample size while also eliminating the potential for return questioning by the respondent.

While this methodology successfully resulted in 72 completed questionnaires, the response rate to achieve this was not recorded.

In the near future, the author anticipates the need for both unstructured qualitative surveys and focus group research. These will provide greater detail on the perceptions and expectations possessed by potential space tourism consumers, with the results fundamental for the design and marketing of space tourism facilities, vehicles, hotels and excursions.

3.1.3 Potential areas of sampling error

The explicit declaration of all study limitations and factors which were not possible to control, is essential to allow critical evaluation of the validity of the data and the study conclusions, as well as for allowing meaningful comparisons with other research (Weber, 1991).

Therefore, it is necessary to state and analyze the degree to which sampling error may have been introduced into the survey results. Previous market research into space tourism provides a valuable source of the accepted sampling error affecting research into this topic. Collins, Iwasaki, Kanayama and Ohnuki (1994) explain that the reliability of all market research concerning future products and services is inherently limited, due fundamentally to the impossibility of predicting the future and in particularly to the inability of respondents to foresee their own future behaviour.

When examining the primary research methodology, it is possible to identify several areas of potential sampling error. It is necessary to assess the extent to which these errors may affect the data and encourage this to be taken into account when evaluating the results.

Weber (1991) states that a large number of errors can emanate from the nature of the population itself, specifically with the impossibility of achieving a precise sample structure. Sampling error of this type was experienced during the execution of this research and is assessed in Chapter 4 (section 4.1.2).

By default, surveys conducted in a face to face method can introduce sampling error through respondent selection by the interviewer. Preference will generally be towards respondents who appear approachable and rational. While conducting the survey, the author attempted to prevent the introduction of this type of sampling error. This was ensured by the operation of a 'next and willing' method, entailing the selection of respondents by a process of interviewing the 'next' person who was 'willing' to take part.

Another potential for error derives from the specifics of when and where the survey was conducted. The majority of questionnaires were completed within a short time frame, at one location and within one town, thus possibly introducing error in terms of time, positioning and geography. However, it is maintained that the data is a fair representation of the general public at that particular time and place.

The relatively small sample size and modest number of respondents from each age and socio-economic groups provide the possibility for data representing these, to be exaggerated. This sampling error should also be considered when evaluating the results.

Weber (1991) raises the issue that the most frequent cause for error in tourism demand studies is the questionnaire and from either the vagaries contained within it or from it's execution. It is necessary to assess the extent to which this has affected the questionnaire used for this research.

Each interview was completed by the same person (thus eliminating any variance due to different interviewer styles), questions were deliberately kept short and simple (with the number of multiple choices or options limited) and each question was delivered in an identical method per interview. Therefore, it is assumed that this sampling error is not significant to for research.

3.1.4 Data comparison

Most of the questions posed on the questionnaire have been sourced directly from the previous survey questionnaires used in Japan and North America (see Chapter 1, section 1.1.3). The intention was to provide a new set of data, enabling comparison with existing data from these two countries and possibly identifying market similarities or disparities.

Figure 1 : Model for estimating the global space tourism potential demand   (Source: Abitzsch 1996)

Abitzsch (1996) suggests that the collection of comparable data also provides a method to estimate the global potential demand for space tourism. The methodology through which Abitzsch (1996) proclaims this should be undertaken is shown in Figure 1 above. As is illustrated within this figure, the potential demand for Europe has been sourced from research undertaken by Abitzsch within Germany. It is suggested that the results from this research could if combined, provide improved statistics for Europe. However, while this may be possible, it is beyond the scope of this research and will not be undertaken.

3.1.5 Summary

This chapter defined the three core objectives of this research as the identification and quantification of space tourism demand 'determinants' and 'motivators', the assessment of the potential demand within the U.K and the comparison between Britain and the research from Japan and North America.

Explanation of the rationale and methodology in which these objectives will be achieved was also included. Potential sources of error within the resultant data was acknowledged and the extent to which this has been limited clarified.

Chapter 4 analyses the data collected from the survey as described within this chapter. All factors raised relating to the methodology or sampling error will be considered while analyzing the results.


4. Chapter Four
4.1 RESULTS ANALYSIS

4.1.1 Introduction

The previous chapter explained the three primary objectives and the methodology for the research conducted into the latent regard and potential demand for space tourism within the United Kingdom. This chapter will, through statistical cross analysis of the data collected from this survey (see Appendix B), evaluate the key issues relating to space tourism and assess the feasibility of developing this market within the U.K.

The theories regarding tourism forecasting and the influences on demand (as described in Chapter 2, section 2.1.3.1) will be referred to, with the aim of quantifying both space tourism demand 'determinants' and 'motivators' and the overall potential demand for space tourism within the U.K.

4.1.2 Demographic variance

4.1.2.1 Gender Ratio

The objective of the survey was to provide a concise assessment of the U.K as a potential market for space tourism. As the results of this research are intended to represent the entire population of the U.K, it is necessary to compare the demographic structure of the survey to that which actually exists. If a variance is identified within the data, analysis based on this data will acknowledge its presence.

Table 4  
Variance in gender ratio between the survey and the 1991 UK Census
Gender
U.K Census 1991
%
Survey
Variance
Male
26,198,161
48.38
45.80
2.58
Female
27,957,906
51.62
54.20
-2.58
Total pop.
54,156,067
100
100
 
Source: HMSO Census (1991)    

The first possible source of variance in demographic structure is the overall gender ratio. Table 4 above, contains the percentage composition of male and female respondents for both the research undertaken and that of the U.K population (HMSO, 1991). As is illustrated in the table, there exists only a marginal variance in the male to female ratio between the U.K and the survey. Male respondents have been over-represented and female respondents under-represented by just over two and half per cent respectively. This variance is considered minimal and is unlikely to have a significant impact on the survey results and will therefore not bias any data analysis.

4.1.2.2 Age group representation

The second potential source of discrepancy between the demographic structure of the U.K and the survey, is age group representation.

To allow direct data comparison with previous surveys in Japan and North America, this survey adopted identical age ranges. However, the boundaries for age range varied from that which has been used by the 1991 U.K Census. Therefore, in order to identify any variation in age group representation between the survey and the U.K population, a conversion has been necessary.

Table 5
Survey gender percentage and variance in age range representation versus Census 1991
 
SURVEY
CENSUS
 
Male %
Female %
Total %
1991 Census %
Survey % (+/-) variance
10 to 19
28.6
71.4
9.7
15.49
- 5.79
20 to 29
52.0
48.0
34.7
17.23
+ 17.47
30 to 39
53.3
46.7
20.8 16.06
+ 4.74
40 to 49
40.0
60.0
13.9
13.51
+ 0.39
50 to 59
25.0
75.0
16.7
10.97
+ 5.73
Over 60
100.0
0.0
4.2
26.73
- 22.53
Total
   
100
100
 
Source: HMSO Census data (1991)

The two elements contained in Table 5 above are; the gender ratio for each age group represented in the survey, the total proportional representation for each age group and the variation between these percentages and the calculated U.K population. The major variances are indicated in bold typeface.

The survey data contains several significant variances in the gender split, age group representation and the gender ratio.

The two principle age group variances are; three quarters more female than male respondents in the 10 to 19 and 50 to 59 age groups and only male respondents representing the over 60 age group. In the case of total age group representation, there exists two major variances between the survey and the 1991 U.K Census; the 20 to 29 age group are over represented by 17.5 % and the over 60 age group under represented by 22.5 %.

These variances could be the result of either exacerbation from Census age group conversions or the limited survey sample.

It is acknowledged that the variances illustrated above affect the results of the survey and the extent to which they are a true reflection of the U.K population. While it is necessary for these variances to be taken into account when evaluating the resultant data, in order to maintain accuracy no re-calculations will be undertaken.

4.1.3 Research results analysis

4.1.3.1 Space tourism interest and awareness

Chapter 1 introduced the notion that Space exploration has sustained an important position on the agenda of national governments and within the social fabric of the population.

As suggested by Baumol and Blinder et al. (1991) within Chapter 2 (section 2.1.2.1), the prevalent market interest towards space and the extent to which it is held with esteem could be perceived as a major ancillary factor affecting the potential demand for space tourism.

Therefore, it was deemed essential to gain an awareness of the importance the respondents placed on space development. Survey question 1 (see sample survey) requested respondents to rate on a Likert scale (to measure the degree to which a respondent agrees or disagrees with the statement ~ Smith, 1996) the overall importance to themselves of space development.

Over 70% of all respondents rated space development as between 'important' and 'most important' to mankind. This clearly demonstrates a significant interest in the phenomenon of space development and this may initially suggest that up to three quarters of the population could be interested undertaking space tourism.

This result is supported by a recent Gallup poll (Etcetera, 1997) which claimed two thirds of all U.K residents were interested in space. However it was acknowledged that this quota has remained relatively unchanged since 1959 which was two years before the first missions into space.

Following on from survey question 1, where space development has been shown to be of importance to a significant proportion of the U.K population. Survey question 2 (see sample survey) demonstrates the extent to which the population is aware of the possibility that space could become a potential holiday destination. Over two thirds (64%) of all respondents had some knowledge regarding the potential for space tourism, prior to the interviewer bringing it to their attention.

However, what needs to be investigated further, is the extent to which those respondents who had an awareness of space tourism believe it to be a feasible concept or consider that it will remain within the realms of Science Fiction.

The results from one question on a U.K survey conducted by Barclays Bank in 1998 (Doughty, 1998), gives an indication of the answer to the above quandary. Only 17 % of all respondents (total sample unknown) anticipated that travel and holidays into space would be available within the next decade. This suggests the majority of the U.K population still consider space tourism to be unfeasible in the short term.

Survey question 4 (see sample survey) aimed to discover whether the respondents of this research held the same opinion, as stated above, on the time frame before space tourism would become available.

Over a third (34.1%) of all respondents viewed the development and commencement of space tourism as occurring in the long term i.e. over 20 years. However, a combined percentage of 45.4% considered space tourism would start within 15 years. Almost twice as many respondents (31.8 %) as the Barclays Bank survey (see above) thought the next decade would see space tourism commence.

David Ashford, Director of Bristol Spaceplanes Plc and a key space tourism authority within the U.K supports these results by insisting "Space tourism will begin 10 years after people stop laughing at the concept, and recently people have stopped" (Scott 1997).

McIntosh and Goeldner (1990) propose that in order to sell a product it is necessary to attract attention, create interest, desire and action. The results from the three questions analyzed above indicate that large proportion of the U.K population regard Space development as important, already have an awareness of space tourism and consider it will occur in the short term.

This suggests that already a significant market potential exists within the U.K, and it is this proposal which is be explored in greater detail through the remainder of this chapter.

4.1.4 The 'Determinants' of space tourism

As explained in Chapter 2 (section 2.1.3.1), there exists a set of core criteria or 'determinants' which prospective tourists must satisfy before being eligible to undertake travel. Similar criteria relate also to space tourism, although are likely to pose a much greater challenge for prospective space tourists to satisfy. This section aims to investigate the key criteria relevant to space tourism and analyze them in relation to the potential market.

4.1.4.1 Cost

Youell (1998) states that in order to qualify for travel a tourist must first have sufficient disposable income to pay for it, especially when considering luxury products which have significant latent demand.

Survey question 8 (see sample survey) attempted to identify an amount which the respondents would be prepared to forfeit in return for the opportunity to travel into space.

Figure 2 contains two elements; the percentage of the respondents willing to pay increasing proportions of their income in order to undertake space travel and the calculated cost for each proportion.

The proportion percentages are cumulative as it is assumed that those respondents who are prepared to pay more than one months' income would also pay a lesser amount also to do so.

The estimated actual cost (as depicted by the inclining line) which the respondents would be prepared to pay has been calculated using the average income figure as obtained from the General Household Survey (1992). This declares the national average gross income to be £176 per week.

As is usually the case in demand economics (Bull, 1995), the two variables on Figure 2 are inversely proportional. As the cost per space trip increases the number of respondents willing to pay that amount decreases.

The results insinuate that the majority (almost 40 % or a cumulative 100 %) of respondents would be prepared to spend an estimated £704 (US$1127) to travel into space. While comparing favourably with the average spend on longhaul travel by U.K residents which in 1997 was £756 (Leisure Intelligence, 1997), in the context of space travel this amount is extremely low.

At the other end of the scale, 11.6 % of all respondents (representing over 3.5 million people) would be prepared to pay one years income or an estimated £8,500 (US$14,025).

Figure 2 : Paying for the Space trip ~ proportion of income and estimated amount in UK Pounds

It is widely predicted (Ashford, 1997) that once established and viable for the mass public (following developmental and operational cost reductions) a space tourism ticket will cost around £6,060 (US$10,000). A price which compares favourably with extravagant cruises, adventure tourism in Antarctica (Rogers, 1994) and a return flight on Concorde (See Appendix E).

Compared to the North American "National Leisure Travel Monitor" survey carried out in 1997 (O'Neil, 1998), in which 42 % of respondents were each prepared to pay US$10,800, U.K respondents are significantly more frugal when considering the amount they would be prepared to pay in order to undertake space travel. This frugality may be due to a lack of perception about the predicted costs for a space trip, or a reflection of the financial insecurity possessed by the U.K population.

One suggestion by the American Astronaut Buzz Aldrin (Newbury, 1998) was to establish a space tourism lottery which would finance development while also providing the general public with a chance of undertaking space travel for the small cost of a ticket. In 1997, 79 % of the U.K population played the main weekly draw of the National Lottery, equating to a total spend of £3.2 billion (Leisure Intelligence, 1998). Considering the awareness and interest which space tourism possesses within the U.K (see Section 4.1.3.1), a space tourism lottery within the U.K could be a success. It would generate sufficient development funds while also satisfying the latent demand fostered by a significant proportion of the population that would otherwise not be able to afford the chance to travel into space.

4.1.4.2 Time

As outlined in Chapter 2, time is another demand 'determinant' of space tourism. For the purposes of this research, time will be discussed as the length of stay people would prefer to stay in orbit. This was the aim of survey question 6 (see sample survey) and Figure 3 depicts the results. The first column (U.K) presents the actual results from the survey, and the second column (U.K adjusted) shows the percentages after the option for 'a few hours' has been excluded, this allows comparison with previous market research.

Figure 3 : Preferred length of stay in space by surveyed market

The comparison between potential country markets on Figure 3 suggests that the U.K shares a similar desire to stay in space for prolonged periods (over 2 days). This could be an early indicator of a global space tourism market which is fairly homogenous in characteristics and aspirations.

The initial phase of space tourism is likely to consist of short visits into Low Earth Orbit ( LEO) offering a brief (but still spectacular) view of the Earth and space.

9.3 % of all respondents would prefer to keep their contact with space to this short period, enjoying the thrills of launch, sightseeing and reentry within the space of a few hours. However, the majority (62.8%) of all respondents stated that they would like to stay in orbit for longer (between 2 days and one week) and significantly 11.6 % stated the desire to stay up to several weeks.

Hall (1997) states that the costs of launch and re-entry are proportionately higher compared to the per-day cost of lodging in space. Thus, if the space habitat is comfortable then it is reasonable to expect that clients or guests will want to maximize the duration of each visit and increase the value for money. To allow space tourism to achieve its maximum potential the development of orbital accommodation is essential. This that challenge which it could be perceived, as the basic technology to provide such accommodation in orbit has been available since in 1973 from the development of the space station "Skylab" by the United States (Collins, 1997).

As the scale of operations expand and increasing numbers of passengers travel into orbit the parallel development of orbital accommodation will be paramount. Collins and Isozaki (1997) estimate that if only a few hundred thousand people travelled into space per year and were to stay in orbit for 2 to 3 days, it would create a simultaneous orbital population of several thousand guests with an additional population of one thousand staff.

Obviously, as space tourism is still only a concept the proposition of thousands of people cohabiting in space at one time is currently unimaginable. However, as the development of the International Space Station ( ISS) is demonstrating, the construction of large entities in space can take many years (Irwin, 1998). Therefore, to ensure hotels will eventually be available for mass space tourism it will be necessary to commence their development at the same time as phase one.

4.1.5 The 'motivators' of space tourism

As explained in Chapter 2 (section 2.1.3.2), the second type of influence on tourism demand are known as 'motivators'. These are a fusion of the consumers' personal motives, justifications and perception of benefits. A few of these may be apparent to the consumer, but many will be sub-conscience and pre-determined by background, education and social status. In order to preempt and manage space tourism demand, it is imperative to gain an understanding of why people would wish to travel into space and what they would like to do while there.

The author, lacking the scientific grounding in the field of psychology specifically elected not to delve to a great extent into the psychological motivations of potential space tourists. As space tourism development is still in an embryonic stage it was also considered that the results from such research would be based entirely on consumers who have only a limited knowledge of the subject and of their personal motivations.

Therefore, the research undertaken into demand 'motivators' has been restricted to the tangible aspects of the trip and investigates activities tourists could undertake while in space.

Survey question 5 (see sample survey) requested respondents to rank, in priority order, seven activities which are likely to be available to space tourists. The results as illustrated in Figure 4 do not demonstrate a large distinction between activities, with none of them achieving a ranking of under 3 (most important).

Figure 4 : Ranking of space tourism motivations

The most popular activity which prospective space tourists would like to participate in is viewing Earth. This is not surprising as Abitzsch (1996) states that all market surveys come to the same conclusion that the simplest thing to do in space is also the most preferred. Toyohiro Akiyama (1993), a Japanese journalist and civil astronaut claims that "sightseeing the Earth is very special…the feeling is more than just seeing the beauty, it is a psychological experience".

The next two most popular activities (still ranking 3) are to look deeper into space and to walk in space. Along with weightlessness in position 4, these activities are usually the constituents of dreams and each are likely to be the key elements of future space tourism marketing.

The space activities occupying the end of the scale and ranking 5 and 6 (least important) are perhaps predictable. The low priorities held by scientific experimentation and space sports could be explained by the general lack of interest or ability in the terrestrial equivalents as well as the fact that more interesting and captivating activities would exist. Re-entry is also ranked as least important (5), but the rationale for this is probably related to safety. Respondent perceptions of risk as a deterrent to space travel will be discussed later in this chapter (see section 4.1.8)

The significance of this question to space tourism, is that of design. The fact that primarily space tourists wish to observe Earth will necessitate the construction of vehicles with large windows and the interpretation of geographical features. In effect, borrowing the techniques which are already provided for sightseers on Earth, such as a priority on identification and explanation to assist education.

4.1.6 Potential demand for space tourism within the U.K

This chapter has discussed only the factors relating to how and why tourists may desire to visit space. This section will aim to determine the potential demand for space tourism within the U.K, and then compare this with other market demand results.

In order to assess the potential demand for space tourism in the U.K, each survey respondent was asked "If space tourism became a reality, would you like to take a trip into space?" (Survey question 3, see Appendix A). In response to this question, participants were provided with three options; 'yes', 'no' or 'maybe'.

The results from this question are illustrated in Figure 5 and summarized in Table 6 below.

 Table 6 Summary of U.K space tourism demand
Age group
Yes
Maybe
No
Under 40 years (%)
76.0
64.7
56.7
40 to 50 years (%)
20.0
35.3
36.7
Over 60 years (%)
4.0
0.0
6.7
 
100
100
100
       
Overall demand
34.7 %
23.6 %
41.7 %
Estimated size of potential market
18,804,190
12,786,849
22,565,028
YES & MAYBE
58.3 % (31,591,039)
41.7 %

The demand data collected by this survey demonstrates that a potential market for space tourism within the U.K does exist. As shown in Table 6, over a third (34.7 %) of all respondents stated that if available they would undertake space travel, this represents a potential market of almost 19 million people. In addition to this, if those respondents who selected 'maybe' are combined then the total rises to a majority of 58.3% or approximately 31.5 million people.

The percentage of respondents who selected 'maybe' as an option but who would decide to undertake space travel if it became a reality, is unknown. However, the reasons why they might have been undecided can be assessed and the implications on the final demand estimated.

Figure 5 : Potential U.K demand for space tourism by age group

At the time survey execution, no specific information on space tourism was provided to the respondent by the interviewer. It is possible that this deficiency in detail may have encouraged cautious respondents to chose 'maybe', being unconvinced that it would be to their preference. It may also be due to the fact that space tourism is not currently a possibility and that respondents will be unsure until it eventually becomes a reality.

It could be suggested that as space tourism develops and more information enters the public domain, a significant proportion of the 'maybe' respondents would convert to wanting to undertake space travel.

Therefore, the author considers the combined percentage of the respondents who stated 'yes' or 'maybe' (58.3%) is more representative of the future latent demand for space tourism within the U.K.

Significantly, 41.7 % of all respondents stated that they would not wish to undertake space tourism even if it became a reality. As this group represents the largest proportion of the population, this should be of a concern to the organizations involved in space tourism development.

It is possible that if space tourism develops into a mass tourism destination, the general public's perception may migrate towards acceptance and approval. Perhaps experiencing a similar pattern of development and utilization as aviation, information technology and communications. If this occurs, then it could be postulated that the proportion of the population currently not wishing to undertake space tourism may diminish. The reasons stated by those respondents who did not wish to undertake a space trip are explored later in this chapter (4.1.8).

4.1.7 Space tourism demand Comparisons

Following the analysis of the potential demand for space tourism with in the U.K, it is essential to compare these results to those from the previous market research conducted in Japan and North America (see Chapter 1, section 1.1.3).

Table 7 (below) provides a summary of the potential demand for space tourism within these two markets.

The total potential demand of between 60 % and 70 % is exceptionally high, especially when considering the size of the population which these percentages represent.

Table 7   Summary of demand results from previous market research in Japan and North America
Country
Total demand
Demand by age groups
Source
Japan
70%
80% under 50 years

45 % over 60 years

1
North America and Canada
60 %
75 % under 40 years

60 % between 40 and 60 years

25 % between 60 and 80 years

2
Source :  1. Collins, Iwaski, Kanayama and Ohnuki (1994)

2. Collins. Stockman and Maita (1996)

The results from the research for the U.K show that 76 % of all respondents who declared a positive interest in space tourism, were under 40 years of age. This correlates with the results from North America (75 %) and Japan, where 80 % of the respondents under 50 years old stated they would travel if possible. These results prove unequivocally that in the three markets surveyed, the under 40 year age group possess the highest propensity for space travel.

In addition to this, the only other similarity between these results is the decline in space tourism demand with age. Although within the U.K this is occurs significantly more expeditious (demand drops to only 4 % in the U.K for those respondents over 60 years of age, compared to 45 % and 25 % in Japan and North America respectively).

4.1.8 Respondent reasons for not wanting to undertake space tourism

As revealed above in Table 6, 41.7 % of all respondents stated that if space tourism became a reality they would not wish to experience it. Survey question 3a (see sample survey) aimed at discovering the reasons why these respondents would not wish to undertake space tourism. The results from this are illustrated in Figure 6.

The primary reason (36.4 %) which respondents stated for not wanting to travel to space was 'risk'. Safety is an issue which is at the core of space tourism and only once reliability has been improved to similar standards as provided by general aviation (O'Neil, 1998) will it be possible for mass space tourism to develop. If this does occur, then it is possible that those respondents who stated that they would not want to undertake space due to the perceived risk, will do so and increase the overall demand.

The next two reasons stated by all age groups was 'not interested' (27.3 %) and 'other' (21.2 %). The author fully accepts that there exists a significant number of people for whom space holds no fascination. However, there are a myriad of reasons why this is the case, and these are not investigated further by this research. Although, Figure 7 may explain one aspect with cross analysis of respondent gender and the reasons for not wanting to undertaking space tourism.

The most significant result from this analysis is that 50 % more female respondents than male, claimed to be 'not interested' in space tourism. This supports the stereotypical notion that space is traditionally a male dominated realm.

Figure 6 : Respondent reasons for not wanting to undertake space tourism

A selection of the reasons why respondents stated 'Other' were recorded and are contained within Table 8 below. It is unlikely that this group of people will ever wish to undertake space travel even if it becomes established and accepted.

Table 8 Respondent quotes justifying why they do not wish to undertake space tourism
  1. " There are more worthy things on Earth which the money should be spent on ".
  2. " Scared of flying ".
  3. " Wish to visit other places instead ".
  4. " Too ill ".

The remaining justifications for respondents not wishing to undertake space tourism are clearly illustrated on Figure 6. Respondents between 10 to 19 and 40 to 60 years, considered space tourism would be 'too expensive'. While this may be understandable for the 10 to 19 age group, the prime target market for space tourism is likely to be the 40 to 60 age group as typically they have both demand determinants; disposable time and money (see Chapter 2, Section 2.1.3.1).

It is possible that the provision of information and targeted marketing may convince this group that space tourism is likely to be the equivalent in cost as a luxury cruise (see Section 4.1.4.1), and if successful an increase in the demand percentage from this market segment could be experienced.

The final two reasons of 'unrealistic' and 'too old' were stated only by those respondents over the age of 40 years. It is difficult to comprehend why this group feels that space tourism is an unrealistic concept, as many of these respondents would have witnessed the first Apollo missions into space and to the Moon. If space tourism does become a reality, additional demand may result from those who currently consider the concept unattainable but would like to go if it is a success.

When John Glenn returned to space in 1998, 36 years after his first mission (Reuters, 1998), it proved that age should not be the limiting factor which these respondents perceive it to be. Therefore, the next generation of respondents (of a similar age to those respondents who claimed 'too old') may consider themselves 'young' enough to go.

4.1.9 Hypothesis Testing (Pearson Chi-Square)

The objective of this section is to discover whether there exists any significant relationships between different variables within the research data. The intention is to identify trends relevant to space tourism within the U.K.

Five separate comparisons have been undertaken with the hypothesis, significance and relationship shown in the individual tables below. If the significance (as shown in the middle column of each table) is below 0.05, the test relationship is significant to a 95% confidence level. In this case the 'Alternative' hypothesis is accepted and it can be stated that a relationship between the variables does exist. If the significance is above 0.05 then the 'Null' hypothesis is accepted and a relationship between the two variables rejected.

Hypothesis 1

Table 9 Hypothesis:

The desire to undertake space tourism is related to age.

Age groups 

(Survey question 11)

vs.
If space tourism became a reality, would you like to take a trip into space?

(Survey question 3)

Value Significance Hypothesis
3.634 0.458 Null (Hypothesis rejected)

Table 9 above, contains the results for the hypothesis that a relationship exists between respondent age and the desire to undertake space tourism. As can be seen, the significance is above 0.05 and therefore the Null hypothesis is accepted. This suggests that no relationship between these variables exists.

However, as can be seen from the data tables in Appendix G, space tourism demand does decline with age. Twice as many (19.4 %) respondents under the age of 30 years declared they would undertake space tourism than those between the ages of 31 and 49 years (8.3 %) and this drops even further (6.9 %) for over 50 years. This suggests that a relationship does exist, although not sufficiently statistically significant to be proven by this test.

The next two hypothesis tests are intended to identify whether a relationship exists between respondent age and gender and the preferred length of stay in space.

Hypothesis 2

Table 10 Hypothesis:

The preferred length of stay in space is related to gender.

Gender

(Survey question 12)

vs.
Once in space, how long would you like to stay there ?

(Survey question 6)

Value Significance Hypothesis
4.621 0.119 Null (Hypothesis rejected)

Table 10 above, demonstrates no relationship statistically exists between the variables of length of stay and respondent gender. Although, the data tables in Appendix G, do suggest that a significant relationship does exist. Short stays in space (between 2 and 3 days) were predominately preferred by female respondents (23.3 %) than male respondents (14.0 %), with longer stays (one week or longer) preferred by over double the number of male respondents (27.9 %) than female (11.6%).

The next hypothesis will attempt to identify whether a similar relationship exists between age and the preferred length of stay.

Hypothesis 3

Table 11 Hypothesis:

The preferred length of a stay in space is related to marital status.

Marital Status

(Survey question 13)

vs.
Once in space, how long would you like to stay there ?

(Survey question 6)

Value Significance Hypothesis
2.679 0.262 Null (Hypothesis rejected)

Table 11 above, concludes that no relationship exists between the preferred length of stay in space and respondent marital status exists.

According to the data tables in Appendix G, it is possible that a relationship may exist between these variables as 'single' respondents preferred to stay for longer than 'married' respondents. However, this may not be statistically valid as twice as many single respondents were interviewed possibly accounting for the relationship.

Hypothesis 4

Table 12 Hypothesis:

The desire to learn more about space tourism is related to age.

Age groups

(Survey question 11)

vs.
Would you like to learn more about space tourism ?

(Survey question 10)

Value Significance Hypothesis
4.629 0.099 Null (Hypothesis rejected)

As space tourism increases in viability the level of information and publicity awarded to it will undoubtedly increase. This information will consist both of journalistic reports and promotions undertaken by the space tourism industry itself.

Therefore, it is important to identify whether respondent age determines whether they would like to learn more about space tourism. Table 12 above, declares this not to be case according to the data collected from the survey. However, the significance is very close to 0.05 and it could be postulated that a marginal relationship does exist.

Examination of the data tables in Appendix G supports this assumption. While the desire to learn more about space tourism declining from 26.4% for those respondents under 30 years to 6.9 % for those over 50 years, the proportion of respondents who did not wish to learn more remained relatively constant (between 11 % and 13 %). This suggests that age was a contributing factor for those who did want to learn more but not for those who did not.

This relationship compares favourably with hypothesis 1, which demonstrated that the demand for space tourism may also decline with age. The assumptions gained from this hypothesis will be important for the future targeting of space tourism marketing.

Hypothesis 5

Table 13 Hypothesis:

The desire to undertake space tourism is related to respondent awareness.

Are you aware of the idea for space tourism ?

(Survey question 2)

vs.
If space tourism became a reality, would you like to take a trip into space?

(Survey question 3)

Value Significance Hypothesis
4.388 0.111 Null (Hypothesis rejected)

This final cross tabulation is connected to that of hypothesis 1, with an objective to identify whether the previous knowledge of space tourism by respondent is related to the desire to undertake it.

Table 13 above, declares that statistically no relationship exists between the two variables. However, closer examination of the data tables (Appendix G) suggests a relationship is present.

Over twice as many respondents (25.0 %) who previously had knowledge of space tourism declared the desire to undertake a space trip than those who did not (9.7%). This relationship is even clearer for those respondents who were undecided (28.3 %) whether to undertake space tourism and had previous knowledge than those who did not (5.6 %).

However, those respondents who did not wish to undertake space tourism remained identical unrelated to whether they had any previous knowledge. This suggests that the desire to undertake space tourism is closely related to whether the respondents had previous knowledge, the those who were not interested in space travel it was irrelevant whether they knew about it or not.

This relationship is important for the estimation of the potential demand for space tourism. Section 4.1.6 states that 23.6 % of all respondents were undecided of whether they would like to undertake space travel when surveyed. Of these respondents, it could be suggested that a greater proportion would have stated 'yes' if they had had previous knowledge of what space tourism entailed before being interviewed.

There are two implications from this; as space tourism publicity increases the demand for it will also increase. And secondly, it defends the assumption made previously in section 4.1.6, that a more reliable representation of the total potential demand for space tourism in the U.K can be gained from the combination of both the 'yes' and 'maybe' percentages.

It is recommended that further research should be conducted in order to clarify and confirm the hypothesis relationships as investigated above.

4.1.10 Summary

This chapter has analyzed the data from the survey undertaken by the author, through the utilization of both cross tabulation and hypothesis testing.

It has identified several areas of variation between the demographic structure of the results and that of the population structure of the U.K.

The results demonstrate that within the U.K; there exists a perception that space development is of significant importance, over two thirds of all respondents had an awareness and understanding of space tourism and the majority perceived space tourism to commence within 15 years.

The data was assessed against the protocol of tourism demand research ('determinants' and 'motivators') as described in Chapter 2 (section 2.1.3.1/2). This suggested that U.K respondents were more frugal when considering the amount they would be prepared to spend to undertake space travel than the Japanese and the North Americans. Also, the majority would prefer to have between 2-3 days and one week in space with the key motivation to do so being to view Earth.

The overall potential demand for space tourism was shown to be only 34.7 %, although this may increase to 58.3 % dependent on whether those undecided chose to travel. For those respondents under 40 years, demand compared favourably with the data from previous market research, however in general the potential demand within the U.K was seen to be much lower than Japan or North America. An analysis of the main reasons for not wanting to undertake space travel revealed that risk was the key factor.

5 difference sets of hypothesis testing failed to demonstrate any clear relationships between the survey variables. However, examination of the data tables (see Appendix G) suggested that relationships may exist between age and space tourism demand, awareness and demand, as well as between age, marital status and the preferred length of stay in space.

Chapter 5, will appraise the principal results from the survey and assess them together with the conclusions from previous chapters. The objective will be to evaluate the overall market potential for space tourism within the United Kingdom.


5. Chapter Five
5.1 CONCLUSION

5.1.1 Introduction

The preceding chapter sought to analyze the key results from the research as carried out by the author. By utilizing the methodology of tourism demand analysis as identified in Chapter 2, the potential demand for space tourism within the U.K was disseminated into its constituent elements. Each element was then assessed for the influence it may exert on space tourism demand, with a resultant calculation produced for the total demand within the U.K.

This chapter will conclude the research by highlighting and evaluating the key findings into a conjectured synopsis of the current market status for space tourism within U.K. Recommendations for additional research will be merited and an overall evaluation of the United Kingdom's potential within the future global space tourism industry undertaken.

5.1.2 Research evaluation

Chapter 1 (section 1.1.2) introduced the notion that, to a limited extent, a space tourism industry already exists on Earth. Space development and launch sites primarily within North America, have proved to be highly popular and lucrative attractions.

The outcome of previous research conducted in Japan and North America, demonstrated the popularity of space on Earth translated also into a significant latent demand for space travel itself. These results have incentivised governments and private corporations to convert this latent demand into actual and reap the economic benefits from doing so.

However, maintaining this momentum necessitates the acquisition of substantiating evidence verifying the market potential. The objective of this research was to contribute demand data from a European perspective to the current statistical pool, thus assisting the confirmation of a global potential demand for space tourism.

The exploration of contemporary literature relevant to forecasting, identified the two principal influences on tourism demand as 'determinants' and ' motivators'. Both of these were shown to consist of additional factors which form the rudimentary qualifying criteria which prospective tourists must satisfy before being eligible to undertake travel. The challenge posed to prospective consumers in order to satisfy the specific space tourism criteria was perceived as formidable and possibly impeding the future demand for space tourism within the U.K.

The following section will aim to quantify this demand criteria, while also providing a market overview of the potential demand for space tourism within the U.K. The basis for this review, will be gained from the results of the primary research conducted (see Appendix B).

5.1.3 Evaluation of the potential demand for space tourism within the U.K

In order to facilitate the evaluation of the potential demand for space tourism, it is necessary to presume the results arising from this research are representative of the entire U.K population. If this proposal is accepted, the following synopsis can be considered as the prevalent status of space tourism within the U.K.

Overall, the respondents expressed a positive approach towards space, with the majority perceiving further development as important. With regards to space tourism in particular, two thirds had some knowledge of the concept and a most considered that it would become a reality within 15 years.

Following the completion of this research, it is possible to quantify the total potential demand for space tourism as currently exhibited bythe U.K population. If demand is accepted as total proportion of those respondents who stated they would like to undertake a space trip, then 34.7 % of the population constitute this group. If however, the demand is considered as a combination of both those who were adamant and those who were undecided but would be likely to undertake space travel (as suggested in section 4.1.6), then this total potential demand rises to a majority 58.3%.

The remainder (41.7 %) represents those respondents who stated that they would not wish to undertake space tourism under any circumstances.

The research reached several further conclusions in relation to the potential demand. It was suggested that demand within the U.K declined significantly more rapid than in other surveyed countries (section 4.1.7), with a predominance of those under 40 years wishing to undertake space tourism. A relationship between increased demand and whether the respondent had previous knowledge of the concept was also suggested (section 4.1.9). Of those respondents who declared they would not wish to undertake space tourism, the primary reason stated was risk.

Therefore, the overall potential demand is inconclusive, with the actual demand demonstrated to be lower than both Japan and North America. It was suggested in section 4.1.9 that if space tourism became reality demand would increase due to greater knowledge and publicity and the demonstration of safe operations. These would encourage those respondents undecided, as well as those perturbed by the perceived risk, to undertake space tourism.

Further examination of the research data illustrated the respondents were considerably more frugal in relation to the amount they were prepared to pay in order to undertake space tourism. The amount ranged from £ 704 to £ 8,500, with the majority prepared only to pay the lower figure (section 4.1.4.1). As the prediction for mass space tourism to cost around £ 6000, these results suggest that only a marginal proportion of the population would be prepared to pay this price.

Another similarity between the U.K market and those previously surveyed, was the preferred length of time in space. The majority (62.8 %) declared a preference to stay in space for between 2 days and over a week. Significantly, this supports the plans for the construction of space hotels, which are proclaimed as essential in order to facilitate the attainment of the maximum space tourism potential.

5.1.4 Britain's potential within the future global space tourism industry

The results as described above, suggest that the market potential for space tourism within the U.K is currently still developing and the future role which space tourism may command within the social fabric of the U.K, is inconclusive

However, the results are significant as even if only the fraction of the population who stated a desire to undertake space tourism (34.7 %) actually did so (section 4.1.6), this market size would already be enough to sustain a viable industry.

Therefore, it can be assumed that Britain has the potential to contribute a significantly to both the development and future success of this emerging concept.

5.1.5 Future research recommendations

It is fully acknowledged that this research has only begun to scratch the surface of the market potential for space tourism within the U.K. Further study of the market is essential in order to clarify elements of this research. It is viewed as imperative that future research aims to conduct a survey with a larger sample size (section 3.1.2.1), investigate further the hypotheses in section 4.1.9, as well as undertaking qualitative research to ascertain more detail on the consumer perceptions and motivations (section 4.1.5).

5.1.6 Summary

The purpose of this chapter was to serve as an epilogue to this research, providing an assimilation of the results and forming an evaluation of the current potential demand for space tourism within the U.K.

The overall demand was discovered to be only one third of the total U.K population. However, it was considered that this demand may increase to over half of the population if space tourism becomes established and incorporated into the range of possible options available to holiday makers.

The extent to which Britain may contribute to the global space tourism industry still remains uncertain. Although, it was stated that even if a small proportion of the population undertook space travel, a significant market would still exist.

The need for further research within the U.K and other countries was acknowledged, with the proposal that this be undertaken within the next five years to clarify the results from this research.

If this research should assist at all in providing improved data which promotes the opening of the space frontier to allow access by the general public, then its undertaking will have been wholly justified.


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7. Appendices

Appendix A : Sample of space tourism survey (Chapter 2 & 4)

Appendix B : A breakdown of survey results by question (Chapter 4)

Appendix F : Figure 7 : Analysis of respondent gender and reason for not wanting to undertake space tourism (Section 4.1.8)

Appendix G : Data Tables not available


Figure 7 : Analysis of respondent gender and reason for not wanting to undertake space tourism (Section 4.1.8)
O Barrett, 1999, "An Evaluation of the Potential Demand for Space Tourism Within the United Kingdom", Bournemouth University, Dorset, England. March 1999.
Also downloadable from http://www.spacefuture.com/archive/an evaluation of the potential demand for space tourism within the united kingdom.shtml

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