NASA Space Exploration Plan in Danger

[Mark Reiff <markreiff@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

FYI,

"Bush’s Space Exploration Plan in Danger
- Shuttle program’s deficit may mean far fewer flights"
MSNBC/Washington Post
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10185181

: A large deficit in NASA's troubled shuttle program threatens to
: seriously delay and possibly cripple President Bush's space
: exploration initiative unless the number of planned flights is cut
: virtually in half or the White House agrees to add billions of
: dollars to the human spaceflight budget.

: Sources familiar with ongoing negotiations between NASA and the
: White House say the administration has no intention of spending
: extra money to deal with a shortfall that some space experts say
: could exceed $6 billion from 2006 to 2010, when NASA plans to
: retire the shuttle for good.

: The source of the deficit is the travail that has plagued the
: shuttle program since the Columbia disaster in 2003. After a single
: flight by Discovery this summer, the orbiters -- grounded for
: 2 1/2 years after Columbia -- are out of action again until at
: least May while engineers work to make them safer.

: One option being considered to close the shortfall is to limit the
: number of flights to two per year -- 10 in all -- and cut the
: workforce. But shuttle program manager Wayne Hale said in a
: televised news conference yesterday that "frankly it doesn't save
: you very much money. . . . From my point of view, that's a
: non-starter."

: NASA Administrator Michael D. Griffin has said that terminating the
: shuttle program would be just as expensive as keeping it going. The
: shuttle routinely consumes more than 30 percent of NASA's budget.

: The impasse has put the future of Bush's "Vision for Space
: Exploration" in doubt less than two years after it was announced.
: Without extra money, experts say, NASA could have trouble
: developing a new "crew exploration vehicle" by 2014, as originally
: planned, let alone fulfilling Griffin's wish to fly it by 2012. The
: dilemma is also fueling an odd confrontation between the
: administration and Congress, where once-wary lawmakers now appear
: willing to provide the extra funding even as the White House backs
: away from its own initiative.

: Initially, Congress expressed suspicion that the initiative was
: either a grandiose but empty gesture or a risky project that would
: cannibalize established NASA programs to raise the needed funding.
: Last year, it took an eleventh-hour arm-twist by then-House
: Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.) to win passage of NASA's
: $16.1 billion budget, but this year lawmakers easily passed the
: 2006 budget -- for the full $16.5 billion the White House
: requested.

: The difference was that Griffin, confirmed in April of this year,
: earned congressional trust by reorganizing NASA and segregating the
: shuttle and exploration vehicle programs from the rest of NASA's
: portfolio.

: Where he has not fared so well, however, is in allaying lawmakers'
: misgivings about the "gap" in human space travel between the end of
: the shuttle program in 2010 and the first manned flights of the new
: exploration vehicle in 2014.

: Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Tex.), chairman of the science and
: space subcommittee, said on Sept. 19 that she "will do everything
: possible to keep the shuttle and crew exploration vehicle programs
: on course," and her words have come to encapsulate the dilemma now
: facing NASA.

: Under the budgets projected for the next five years, experts
: outside and within the Bush administration agree, it will be
: impossible -- by several billion dollars -- to complete the planned
: shuttle missions and finish the new spacecraft by 2012, or maybe
: even by 2014.

: NASA and the White House budget office said they could not comment
: on the shortfall before the official 2007 budget rollout in
: February, but several expert sources described ongoing negotiations
: to find a solution. They spoke on the condition of anonymity
: because they did not want to become part of the public debate or
: were not authorized to speak for their employers.

: Griffin acknowledged as much at a Nov. 3 House Science Committee
: hearing, saying the plan to finish the space station and retire the
: shuttle in 2010 faces a "$3 billion to $5 billion" funding
: shortfall.

: A committee document placed the deficit at "nearly $6 billion," and
: some sources said even that figure could be low. NASA's budget
: difficulties have also been complicated by having to pay for about
: $400 million in special projects inserted, mostly by senators, into
: the agency's 2006 funding.

: The sources said the White House is juggling several proposals to
: close the deficit, but one industry source said, "None of the
: choices are good -- NASA's in a box."

: But the White House, struggling with the costs of the Iraq war and
: Hurricane Katrina, is unlikely to find billions more for space
: travel. "There's really no place Griffin can go," said one source
: familiar with the negotiations. "The White House gave him the best
: deal he could expect. He can go back to the well, but it's not
: going to happen."

: Several sources confirmed that the budget office in the early
: negotiations proposed stopping shuttle flights altogether. "It
: sucks money out of the budget, and it's a dead-end program," one
: source said.

: But "that argument's over," another source said. "The political
: side of the White House said, 'We're keeping it.' If you kill the
: shuttle right now, it will be heavy lifting for your foreign policy
: because of the international obligations" around the space station.

: A proposal under consideration would keep the full complement of
: shuttle flights -- 18 to finish the space station and one to
: service the Hubble Space Telescope -- and let completion of the
: crew exploration vehicle slip to 2014, if necessary, or even
: beyond.

: "The president said originally there would be a four-year gap, and
: that's realistic," one source said. "My personal view, though, is
: whatever date you set . . . it will slip."

: Some negotiators believe they could salvage the 2012 delivery date
: if NASA goes to "serial processing," using only one team of
: engineers to prepare shuttle flights one at a time. The sources
: said this would drop the total number of flights to about 10.

: "But what kind of a space station do you get out of that?" one
: source asked. "And while you can reduce the workforce and maybe
: save some money, you don't know how much, and you're not making
: anyone happy. This is nobody's first choice."

: The fourth possibility, the one probably favored by Congress, is to
: fully fund both the shuttle and the new spacecraft, thus
: eliminating the entire four-year gap and ensuring a seamless
: transition to a new era in human space travel.

--
Mark Reiff <markreiff@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>

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