Space Commercialization: The View from 1966

[Mark Reiff <markreiff@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

FYI,

"Space Commercialization: The View from 1966"
The Space Review
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/117/1

: Editor’s Note: The commercialization of space is often considered a
: relatively contemporary idea. However, for decades people have
: proposed ways to go into space not in the pursuit of knowledge or
: glory, but to make money. One such person was Austin Stanton,
: founder of Varo, Inc., a company that, several decades ago,
: developed aerospace electrical systems. Stanton was a strong
: proponent of spaceflight in general and commercial space ventures in
: particular.

: At the national meeting of the American Astronautical Society in San
: Diego in February 1966, Stanton gave a speech titled “Commercial
: Development of the Resources of Space”. That speech was later
: published in pamphlet form by Varo. In that speech, Stanton outlined
: what he perceived to be the various attributes of space—
: weightlessness, vacuum, etc.—and how they could be utilized for
: industrial ventures in orbit and beyond.

: Today, the concept of space industrialization seems a bit quaint:
: industrial ventures in space have never taken hold, in part because
: of the high costs of space access as well as the lack of an
: identifiable key product that can only be manufactured in space.
: Commercial ventures today focus more on services than goods:
: communications, remote sensing, and, in perhaps the near future,
: tourism. However, Stanton’s speech is still useful in that it offers
: a view of what was once considered the forefront of space
: commercialization.

: Stanton’s speech, as printed in the Varo pamphlet, is provided
: below. Some of the language is certainly dated (like the “philosophy
: of microcircuitry”), but his views on other topics, notably
: transportation, are as relevant today as they were 38 years ago.

---------

: My purpose is to examine the state-of-the art of astronautics and
: the economic ecology in which it is embedded, to expose the present
: opportunity for exploitation of the resources of space.

: As a businessman, I propose that the time is ripe for a profitable
: industrial venture in space. I would like to examine the probable
: effects of this exploitation on the members of this organization, as
: well as other segments of society.

: The very broadness of the concepts, and the diversity of disciplines
: involved, make it difficult indeed for a businessman to find a
: proper forum for a discussion of this nature.

: The members of the American Astronautical Society are the exception
: to the rule, however, and I consider it a privilege indeed to
: address a group so broadly prepared as yourselves. I hope that the
: message I bring can also be presented to segments of our industrial
: society not represented in the AAS.

: I propose to leave the technical questions raised to those who are
: currently working in the field, and all but the most elementary
: financial problems to specialists. It is my purpose merely to direct
: your attention, and that of the other segments of society involved,
: to the need for immediate and conscientious study of the future of
: commercialized space as it will affect them. The time for active
: study and planning is now.

: A great deal has been written about the occupation of space for
: reasons almost irrelevant to the properties of space. Speculation
: has taken place on the exploitation of the materials of planets and
: planetoids. Great advances have been made in our technical knowledge
: necessary to carry out each.

: Two direct practical uses have been made of earth orbit occupation,
: one, observation, and the other, communication. I will not concern
: myself here with the future of these, nor with possible military
: storage in space, since they exploit only the position in space, not
: its resources.

: Because businessmen are concerned with the dollars provided by
: stockholders and retained earnings, we must here limit ourselves to
: the areas of space exploitable by present technology and by
: presently-available amounts of money. I will, therefore, limit this
: discussion to cislunar space; to the smaller orbits where the
: required resources are available.

: This is an area where private enterprise can, of its own initiative,
: exploit these resources for the benefit of its stockholders,
: employees and society in general, with little or no danger of
: monopoly, exhaustion of those resources, or injury to segments of
: the population.

: I do not minimize the opportunities for research inherent in the
: facilities proposed. In my own business, these would be undertaken
: when required for maintenance of, or expansion of, an established
: business venture.

: I have confined my remarks, however, to exploitation on the basis of
: today's technology.

: Let us catalogue the resources of space which are of interest to
: industry. No claim for completeness is made, only that the list is
: sufficiently attractive to engage the interest of all segments
: necessary to exploitation at a very early date.

: 1. Vacuum
: 2. Radiation
: 3. Absence of radiation
: 4. Temperature (various)
: 5. Weightlessness
: 6. Inertial regime
: 7. Limitless 3-dimensional space
: 8. Clean environment
: 9. Absence of sound

: I will discuss the exploitation of these resources in various orders
: and combinations as required for application to commercial
: enterprises, not as separate entities.

: One of the simplest and most useful consequences is the dimensional
: stability of structures. Maintenance of the relative positions of a
: complex of instruments or machinery would require only minimal
: connection and strength. Rotation of a complex would still further
: reduce requirements for stiffening load-bearing members. It permits
: planning of industrial complexes measured in cubic miles rather than
: in square feet, as on earth. This may have important consequences,
: as it releases facility planners from the gravitational limitations
: of earth.

: Vacuum, unlimited in extent, of much higher quality than that
: obtainable on earth and free from particulate and gaseous
: contamination opens new possibilities for manufacturing in space. An
: example might be the manufacture of microcircuits.

: The philosophy can and will be extended far beyond electronics into
: the areas of manufacture of much of the hard goods of commerce.

: The microcircuitry concept merely replaces assembly of components by
: assembly of atoms or small particles. Its application to electronics
: collected a number of well-known technologies to produce useful
: monolithic circuits. Extreme reliability and small size have been
: almost inevitable bonuses. The multiple use of structural, chemical
: and electrical properties of each atom leads to significant
: economies and capabilities. Many millions of dollars are being
: invested in this area, and, as a result, the industry is undergoing
: a revolution.

: Possibly a microcircuitry factory will be the first to be put in
: orbit because of its highly developed technology, its drive toward
: automation and the low cost of transportation of its materials and
: products.

: Alloys, mixtures and graded transitions from one material to another
: are possible and common in microcircuitry.

: The vacuum of space is many orders better than any attained on
: earth. The possibilities for product improvement by the use of
: better vacuum must be large, but to date they have not been
: explored.

: Thin film technology and microbial culture technology require unique
: cleanliness. The cost of "clean rooms" has become quite large and
: the result questionable. Space provides uncontaminated volumes
: ready-made.

: Opportunities for working freely with extremes of temperature are
: abundant in space.

: Superconductivity on a scale inconceivable on earth is possible in
: space. Many uses for magnetic fields have been suggested but laid
: aside because of the high cost of cryogenics.

: In space, only shields to exclude radiation are required to attain
: the same low temperatures throughout a large volume. A structure or
: space in the shadow of an efficient photoelectric generator surface
: already possesses this characteristic. Little further cost would be
: incurred to utilize it. Cryogenic processes based on current
: technology could be carried out on large scale in space.

: Concentrating additional sunlight on equipment raises temperatures
: to areas quite difficult to obtain on earth. Many commercial
: processes await the availability of such temperatures on a
: continuous basis.

: Very high temperature gradients exist between the surfaces of
: materials with one side exposed to radiation, the other to space.
: Rotation about an axis in the plane of the material produces
: alternating gradients. Lack of aerodynamic friction permits rapid
: rotation of thin sheets. This might provide basic AC as well as
: useful chemical and metallurgical processes.

: The possibilities of high velocity processes are only now being
: investigated. Some have extremely interesting commercial potential.
: Aerodynamic limitations have been avoided to a slight degree at
: almost prohibitive cost and with consequent contamination. In the
: vacuum of space, many useful high velocity processes would be
: possible. Velocities equal to those attained in explosive formation
: of metals could be produced and maintained continuously. This would
: permit building structures of particles far larger than the atoms of
: microcircuitry, but achieving many of the same ends.

: Collision pressure produced by particles of controlled velocity
: would produce predictable and useful results, such as perforation,
: imbedment, local changes in crystalline structure, and so on.

: The available radiations of space are so varied that we will be able
: here only to hint at their manifold uses. Temperature maintenance is
: elementary. Generation of electrical power from sunlight is useful
: in today's satellites. No doubt more efficient and cheaper
: converters will be developed, particularly when the materials can be
: mined on a captured planetoid and converted into solar cells in
: ground-controlled factories in orbit. This will have to wait,
: however, until a planetoid program is set up and carried out, a
: matter of at least 10 years. Let us return to the exploitation of
: the resources currently available Manufacture of our solar cells
: from materials transported from earth will be one of the early
: practical processes in space.

: Radiations of every conceivable wavelength abound in space. The
: utility and the cost of some of these are well known to industry,
: others are as yet little known. For instance, the means for
: investigating the generation and assessment of the utility of
: monochromatic X-rays and infrared radiations are just now being
: developed in the laboratories at Varo. Many useful processes will
: soon be available. They will also be useful in space with the sun
: providing the radiation.

: Development of the subject of the optics of coherent radiations has
: shown that the image can indeed be at higher temperature than the
: source.

: The structures and systems needed to carry on profitable manufacture
: in space will take many forms and perhaps occupy many orbits.
: Continuity of communication and control suggests the special utility
: of the 24-hour synchronous orbit. We will not herein try to
: anticipate the forms of these facilities but only suggest that
: occupation of discrete positions in synchronous orbit by competing
: organizations is reasonable.

: Looking into the longer future for a moment, it is conceivable that
: a series of structures in synchronous orbital positions be connected
: together to constitute a 150,000-mile long continuous structure
: around the earth in the equatorial plane. Structures in sub- and
: supra-synchronous orbit could be rather easily bound to those in the
: synchronous orbit, constituting a washer-like band of structures
: similar to the rings of Saturn, but having all parts thereof
: synchronous with the control stations below.

: We have touched on some of the resources of space, let us now turn
: our attention to the role of people in the exploitation of these
: resources.

: Many, but by no means all, who are now active astronauts will find
: that their engineering, managerial or financial skills can be
: developed. Others, however, will have to be trained to take their
: place.

: Members of the American Astronautical Society are scattered through
: many of the segments of the industrial world. Their skills will be
: required for the exploitation of the resources of space. The areas
: of available opportunity for each of you will be multiplied when
: your specialties become direct requirements of industrial ventures,
: rather than requirements within corporate stepchildren precariously
: bidding for Government-sponsored research and exploration.

: At first glance, it would seem that large numbers of people would be
: required for commercial space ventures, but this problem may be
: largely avoided by the recent improvements in telemetry and
: computer-controlled automation. Orbital distances being small, the
: time delay involved would not be a serious handicap. Satellite
: communication links would provide continuous control, although they
: would not be required if synchronous orbital positions were used.
: Since the control of processes would remain in the hands of
: earthbound technicians, construction assemblers and maintenance
: workers only will be required in orbit.

: In the development of the resources of space, the building of
: facilities on earth, the communities to serve them, and the
: auxiliary services to the people of these communities, many new
: opportunities for employment will be opened up. Labor will benefit
: as much as any other segment.

: It is quite likely that the need for further research in space and
: exploration of the moon and more distant space will require
: continued expansion of the present transportation system and of the
: agencies planning, managing and manning the facilities. This will
: provide abundant opportunities for the individuals in agencies
: concerned with space.

: The opportunities for the financial group working to gather the sums
: of money required for the various commercial exploitations will be
: even greater. This is because they invest their time, knowledge and
: creative ability. Even failure cannot deprive the promoter of the
: knowledge gained in each venture.

: Educators will be pressed to expand their activities into
: interdisciplinary areas never before related. Both highly
: specialized people and people knowledgeable in many diverse
: disciplines will have to be prepared to cope with the gigantic task
: ahead.

: Most, if not all, of the technological advances required to launch
: the exploitation or orbital space, utilizing the known resources of
: space, have been made. It requires only that most valuable of
: ingredients, an idea. This idea must be developed into a completely
: workable plan, including all the elements discussed here and,
: perhaps, a number of others.

: Leadership must, and always does, arise to put plans into action. It
: is, of course, uncertain which segment of our society will supply
: this leadership. I believe that it will come from individuals who
: have the breadth of knowledge, the drive and perseverance to carry
: these plans to completion.

: It is realized that the basic plan of organizing an entity capable
: of the necessary steps, managing that organization to plan in depth,
: arranging financing, negotiating governmental assistance, acquiring
: all necessary rights to use required inventions and technologies,
: acquiring personnel and facilities, and then the carrying out of
: such a plan successfully is a task that must be conceived and
: executed by an individual or, at most, a very small group. Few
: companies are successfully started on any other basis. Individuals
: capable of this task will appear. The time is now.

: The problem of providing the means of capturing and bringing into
: earth orbit planetoids from the trans-Martian asteroid belt is a
: venture presently outside the capabilities of commercial enterprise.
: Perhaps, when the pattern is established, venture capital would be
: able to prospect the belt, particularly if profits from orbital
: space ventures provided a reasonable part of the required venture
: funds.

: The financial opportunities created by the exploitation of the
: resources of space will be substantial. One reason is that it is
: recognized that the risks in new ventures are greater than the old.
: This will hold true for the investing public. However, it will not
: be difficult to persuade investors to venture into buying stock in
: the new companies for three reasons. First, the predictions of the
: early advocates of astronautics have been fulfilled; second, the
: efforts of space agencies have been spectacularly successful; and
: third, because the Comsat venture seems to be sound and popular.

: The capital required to break into the industrial race for space
: will, of course, be large. The size of the individual enterprise
: depends largely on the means of cooperation between the government
: agencies and the exploiting company.

: Discovery of new frontiers is a function of a few. Larger numbers
: complete the exploration. Exploration requires organized effort. It
: was so with the discovery of the New World and the opening of the
: West. In the latter case, the Federal Government supplied the
: backing for exploration and purchase and, finally, the means of
: transportation, which was the key factor in the development of the
: West. These investments have paid enormous dividends to the
: taxpayers of our country.

: It will be necessary for the government to make this transportation
: system available at nominal cost to industry while industry invests
: its resources in the development of the requisite technical
: facilities.

: This will make it possible for a much larger competitive number of
: companies to enter the field. It will multiply the chances of
: overall success in space and reduce the time required.

: There is, of course, an inherent danger in the continued operation
: of the transportation system by the Government.

: Government management tends to be more expensive and wasteful than
: competitive management. Costs will be higher than necessary when
: reduction of cost is imperative. Bureaucratic caution multiplies
: when the possibility of profit to the members of industry arises.

: It is, therefore, advisable to set a course of relinquishing control
: of and ownership of the transportation system at a fairly early
: date.

: As a businessman, I will strive to place an organization in the
: forefront of this new frontier. I welcome the combination of sharing
: knowledge and experience with the strong competition which will
: develop. It is my task and my pleasure to call to your attention the
: opportunities that are available now and to urge you to make plans
: whereby you may share in the riches of this new frontier.

--
Mark Reiff <markreiff@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>


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