The New Space Race
FYI,
"The New Space Race"
Forbes Magazine
http://www.forbes.com/technology/2006/01/17/space-tourism-entrepreneurs_cx_de_0118space-intro.html
: On July 20, 1969, Neil Armstrong stepped out of a cramped metal
: spacecraft and onto the moon, creating one of the iconic moments in
: human history. On Earth, the achievement was broadcast live to
: billions.
: Around the same time, in four obscure laboratories in California
: and Utah, a much quieter revolution was under way. Researchers
: commissioned by the U.S. Department of Defense were connecting a
: handful of computers into the first packet-switched network, which
: they called the ARPANET, giving birth to a computing system that
: would lead to the global Internet.
: Four decades later, the Internet has changed the way we do business
: and live our lives, but space still remains inaccessible--the
: domain of governments and the ultra-rich. There has been little
: money to be made in space by anyone but huge contractors, such as
: Lockheed Martin or Boeing, less excitement and no hope of the
: average Joe getting involved.
: But the tide is turning. Flush with dot-com cash--and raised on
: visions of moonwalks, space shuttles and Captain Kirk--a generation
: of passionate, tech-savvy entrepreneurs is breathing new life into
: the space business. Iconoclasts like Virgin Group founder Richard
: Branson, Amazon.com CEO Jeff Bezos and Google co-founder Larry Page
: are dedicating not only their dollars but also their brainpower.
: "All the sudden, you have these new visions for space exploration,
: and there's renewed excitement," says Marco Caceres, senior analyst
: and director of space studies for aerospace consultancy the Teal
: Group.
: A little new blood is just what the doctor ordered. At its core,
: the modern space industry is all about building and launching
: satellites, and that business has been lagging--largely due to the
: extensive infrastructure already in orbit. In 2005, the industry
: had one of the lowest launch rates in its history. Sales in the
: U.S. space sector increased 3.8%, or $1.4 billion, to a record
: $37 billion in 2005, according to the Aerospace Industries
: Association.
: But spending by NASA and other federal agencies accounted for the
: entirety of that increase--and it lagged far behind the 9.2% annual
: growth for the aerospace industry as a whole. Projections for next
: year are flat.
: "For the past five years, the market has been stagnant," says
: Caceres. "Everybody has been looking around and saying, 'Is this
: what the industry is becoming? Or is it just part of a cycle, a
: temporary lull before a boom?' "
: If there is a boom coming, the fuse was lit by the 2004 flight of
: SpaceShipOne, a reusable space vehicle built by aircraft designer
: Burt Rutan and funded by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen. By flying
: into orbit twice within two weeks, it won the $10 million Ansari
: X Prize and proved that small, privately funded efforts could go a
: long way toward revolutionizing space travel.
: The ultimate promise of reusable craft like SpaceShipOne is a
: vastly reduced launch cost, greater ease of preparing a flight and
: the prospect of opening space for tourism.
: A 1997 NASA study calculated that about one-third of Americans
: would be interested in traveling to outer space, and a few
: entrepreneurs already are making it happen: Arlington, Va.-based
: Space Adventures has organized three trips into orbit for wealthy
: private citizens--charging $20 million for a ride on a Soyuz
: spacecraft and a few days on the International Space Station.
: Of course, a handful of wealthy adventurers do not make a market
: --and even those involved agree that space tourism isn't ready for
: the mainstream. "For the time being, it's going to be something
: that's very expensive," admits Space Adventures Chief Executive
: Eric Anderson.
: So more accessible alternatives are in the works. Branson's Virgin
: Galactic hopes to take paying passengers on three-hour suborbital
: flights by early 2009. He hopes to reduce the cost of suborbital
: travel by commercializing technology created by Allen's Mojave
: Aerospace Ventures; the company is now building SpaceShipTwo for
: Virgin's purposes.
: Late last year, Virgin cut a deal with the State of New Mexico to
: build a $200 million spaceport. One hundred and fifty founding
: investors have put down deposits on their $200,000 tickets.
: Another effort to create cheaper launch vehicles comes from Elon
: Musk, the founder of PayPal, who made $1.5 billion when he sold the
: business to eBay. His company, Space Exploration Technologies, is
: developing a rocket called Falcon 1. When completed, it should put
: a half-ton payload into low Earth orbit for just $6.7 million--a
: pittance compared with the $150 million you might spend launching a
: Boeing Delta IV or Lockheed Martin Atlas V rocket.
: Plenty of other tech savants are also turning their attention to
: spacecraft manufacturing. Amazon.com co-founder and CEO Bezos is
: bankrolling Blue Origin, which aims to design and build small
: suborbital vehicles. Legendary videogame designer John Carmack--
: creator of games like Doom and Quake, and founder of id Software--
: owns rocket-technology startup Armadillo Aerospace. And Google
: co-founder Page has joined the board of the X Prize Foundation,
: which is now planning a series of new contests to encourage
: research and development.
: Of course, even if both entrepreneurs and aerospace giants produce
: revolutionary new space vehicles, there's still nowhere for them to
: go. Pleasure flights would last just a few hours and don't hold
: much promise for repeat business. But what if space contained a
: destination that could justify the expense and attract visitors for
: days or weeks?
: That's the question being addressed by Robert Bigelow, owner of the
: Budget Suites of America hotel chain. His venture, Bigelow
: Aerospace, is using technology originally developed by NASA to
: develop inflatable habitats, each one of which could be shipped
: into space, blown up to about the size of a three-bedroom house and
: connected to a structure such as the International Space Station.
: "I think Bigelow could be the sleeper success of space tourism,"
: says Whitesides. "He's recognized that a key component of space
: tourism ultimately will be the destination, and that's something
: that really no one else at his level has thought about."
: Don't feel up to making the trip yourself? No worries: You'll be
: able to get a taste of the excitement without leaving your couch.
: The Rocket Racing League plans to pair off high-powered rocket
: planes in a high-speed, 3-D chase through the skies--think NASCAR
: meets Star Wars. The effort, which is being put together by Peter
: Diamandis, chairman and CEO of the X Prize Foundation, and Granger
: Whitelaw, a venture capitalist and partner in two winning
: Indianapolis 500 racing teams, is developing rocket-powered
: aircraft with Mojave, Calif.,-based XCOR Aerospace. They plan to
: demo the first rocket races this October at the X Prize Cup in Las
: Cruces, N.M.
: But if nothing else, these new efforts show signs of life and
: excitement in the space business--something sorely missing since
: the summer of 1969.
: "The exciting thing about this moment is that you not only have the
: promise of new markets, you have credible players putting
: significant capital into them," says Whitesides. "That's a real
: sign of development in the world of space."
--
Mark Reiff <markreiff@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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