Re: Dale Gray's model
Discussion to date:
> What is your opinion on the relative importance of the
financial factors, then?
>> I have yet to see a frontier without a strong charisma factor.
> Fair enough. But there are clear differences betwen the
terrestrial frontiers which you have studied and the space
frontier. Do you have any deeper understanding as to why the charisma
factor is so important, what barriers it overcomes, and whether those
barriers are analogous in the terrestrial and space arenas? That is to
say, is it legitimate for you to transfer your model in this way? Are
the fundamental properties of the situations sufficiently comparable?
There is a perception that money flows outward from frontiers. This is not
the case. Let me repeat that, it is important, this is not the case.
Money flows into frontiers, especially in the beginning phases.
Speculators place their money, lives, hard work on the line to back
various opportunities. About 90% of all frontier efforts end in failure.
But the money invested in these enterprises does not evaporate. It is
transformed into infrastructure, new technology, and private fortunes.
So why is charisma important? What rational person in their right mind
would invest in a leading edge frontier opportunity if they knew the odds?
They should declare all such activity as "humbugs" and put their money
into IBM and Coke. But humans are endlessly facinated by frontiers and
their potential. While 90% of all frontier opportunities fizzle, that
still leaves an
amazing 10% - much higher odds than daily life. The excitement of being
in on the action and the potential to be the next Bill Gates is bait that
few can resist.
Frontiers can and do produce money, but there are few that can "bootstrap"
themselves to self-sufficiency. Start-up capital, personnel and equipment
are necessary and it requires "sales" to get these going to where they
This threshold for the sparking of an active frontier is called the Oler
Launch Bar. In a way it is the summation of the three CLG factors.
in any of the three can lower the bar for the launch of a frontier. Too
charisma may launch a frontier prematurely. This happened a number of
in the old west when rumors sent miners out to what turned out to be barren
ground. A few times during these "humbug rushes" something else was found
and the new frontier ignited. On the other hand, too little Charism and no
bothers to partake in the frontier.
This is probably more than you wanted, but if you want a longer treatment,
can direct you to a couple URLs where earlier copies of the Frontier Model
available. I am currently working to update the model with two new
1) all frontiers are sparked from existing frontiers.
2) frontier cash flow is nearly always negative for the first few phases.
May I ask what business in Chile?